Sabato’s Handicapping the Governors’ races, Part One.

The Democrats are not in as good a position as their position two weeks ago might have suggested.

Larry Sabato has done the first half of his anaylsis of the governor’s races for 2010 (the Democratic half): the basic results are below.

• ARKANSAS: DEMOCRATIC HOLD.
• COLORADO: LEANS DEMOCRATIC.
• ILLINOIS: TOSS-UP.
• IOWA: LEANS DEMOCRATIC.
• KANSAS: LEANS REPUBLICAN TURNOVER.
• MAINE: TOSS-UP.
• MARYLAND: LEANS DEMOCRATIC.
• MASSACHUSETTS: DEMOCRATIC HOLD.
• MICHIGAN: TOSS-UP.
• NEW HAMPSHIRE: DEMOCRATIC HOLD / TOSS-UP
• NEW MEXICO: LEANS DEMOCRATIC HOLD
• NEW YORK: LEANS DEMOCRATIC / TOSS UP
• OHIO: LEANS DEMOCRATIC.
• OKLAHOMA: TOSS-UP.
• OREGON: TOSS-UP
• PENNSYLVANIA: TOSS-UP.
• TENNESSEE: TOSS-UP.
• WISCONSIN: LEANS DEMOCRATIC.
• WYOMING: LEANS DEMOCRATIC.

The first interesting thing that pops out is, of course, how few guaranteed Democratic retentions there are. Arkansas and Massachusetts, with New Hampshire and New Mexico both being dependent on circumstances. Even more interesting is the way that eight of the nineteen (not twenty) races are considered TOSS-UPs, including states like Illinois, New York, Oregon & Pennsylvania. Only one being listed as a turnover (Kansas), but that’s better than zero.

The other interesting bit is that this is distinctly more pessimistic than Sabato’s examination of Democratic Senate races in 2010 (he forecast it as likely that the GOP would lose even more seats in the next election). Of course, this was back when the President was enjoying a 60% approval rating and the Democrats were doing better in partisan identification numbers.  Both a better now for the Republicans than they’ve been in a while; that could very well be affecting Sabato’s predictions.

Of course, in a very real sense this is all nonsense.  Next year’s elections are going to be affected by a whole host of things that haven’t happened yet; there are the elections in Virginia and New Jersey, the special elections in New York, Illinois, and (now) California, the economic news, whatever foreign crises that crop out between now and then, at least three Beltway scandals, and whatever is the burning issue is in late October, 2010.  At the same time, everybody’s equally spouting out nonsense; some of us just use more math.  So my advice is to concentrate on the elections that are of interest to you and/or happening right now, and start developing useful associations on the state and local level of the GOP.

And, of course, ignore people that tell you that doing either is futile.  But you knew that already.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to RedState.