May
11
2009

Rasmussen and the quietly rusting Democratic advantage.

[UPDATE] And welcome, Weekly Standard readers.
[UPDATE] Welcome, Instapundit readers. Taking a trip, soon? Murtha’s here to help!

Examining Rasmussen’s trust-on-issues numbers from month to month is interesting enough, but I was interested in the long term trends.  So I put together this chart comparing this month’s numbers with those of last October’s*:

October 2008 May 2009
Issue Dem GOP Diff Dem GOP Diff Cum Shift
Economy 51% 38% 13 44% 43% 1 (12)
Govt Ethics 40% 30% 10 40% 29% 11 1
National Sec. 47% 44% 3 41% 48% (7) (10)
Education 53% 34% 19 49% 36% 13 (6)
Healthcare 54% 34% 20 53% 35% 18 (2)
Taxes 47% 42% 5 41% 47% (6) (11)
Iraq 47% 42% 5 41% 43% (2) (7)
Social Security 49% 37% 12 48% 39% 9 (3)
Abortion 47% 38% 9 41% 41% - (9)
Immigration 40% 38% 2 36% 37% (1) (3)


As you can see, back in October it was fairly clear that Democrats were enjoying consistent leads over Republicans when it came to how much the public trusted them on various issues.  It’s also fairly clear that in most cases, those leads have been savaged.  Leading in four categories and tied in one may not sound wonderful; but compared to zero-for-ten that’s not half bad – particularly since it’s looking as if the Democrats are in the process of thoroughly squandering their existing trustworthiness with regard to the economy.  The only real disappointment is the government trust numbers (which were much better last month**), but that’s the next project.

What does it mean?  Not much, except of course as a helpful reminder that the people who are currently eager to tell you that we’re doomed as a party are not necessarily working from completely accurate data.  Hardly surprising: most of those people don’t have your best interests at heart.  Or any of your interests at heart, really.

Moe Lane

*It’s really the one that we’re all interested in, given that it’s more or less at the zenith of the Democrats’ popularity.

**This month’s and last month’s numbers in general were pretty volatile.

Crossposted to RedState.

25 Comments

  • […] to Moe Lane. SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title:’Rasmussen and the quietly rusting Democratic advantage.’, […]

  • wells says:

    This shows our diffusing focus. We’re getting traction in too many things at once.

    Last month saw three key issues with legs: the ballooning deficit, the corrupt stimulus, and the collaboration between key democrats like Chris Dodd and financial fatcats. I interpret Obama’s world-wide tour, leaks over gitmo and waterboarding, etc as attempts to distract the public from issues he’s clearly losing on.

    These issues also form a powerful foundation when we resist socialized medicine.

  • Corky Boyd says:

    I’m surprised that their numbers have fallen this much. They have been pouring money on every problem as is there are no consequences. And there are. Who could have concieved of a two trillion dollar annual deficit a year ago?

    The net effect will be rampant inflation well before the next presidential election. And because of the drag of far higher taxes, union domination and self defeating environmental policies, the economy will continue to tank. All you have to do is look at Great Britain’s basket case economy of the 1970s to see our future.

    The cure for stagflaion is politically painful and I don’t think Democrats have the stomach for it.

    So I think Geithner and Bernanke should get some training from the geniuses in Zimbabwe on how to print 10 trillion dollar bills. They will need the experience.

  • Mwalimu Daudi says:

    It’s not the poll numbers that matter anymore. What matters is who registers the voters and who enforces the election laws. We have entered the Age of ACORN and the Holder Justice Department, where our elections will come to resemble those in Third World tinpot dictatorships.

    If you want to see the future, just look at the Minnesota US Senate race and the recent NY-20 special election. In both cases badly flawed GOP candidates narrowly won on election night only to watch in the following days Democrat officials “find” enough votes to put their candidates over the top. And in both cases Democrats successfully suppressed overseas military ballots that surely would have doomed their candidates.

    In short, the Cook County-ification of America has begun. No poll can overturn that.

  • Peg C. says:

    Proof that familiarity breeds contempt, careful what you wish for you just might get it, what goes around comes around, etc. All cliches apply and they’re true. With this bunch, it just came sooner than normal. We’re already sick and contemptuous of them.

  • Terrye says:

    I expect that question about government ethics will show a shift as well here in the not too distant future.

  • Tuesday morning links…

    Health-conscious Brits ban library steps. Not satire. What’s the point of being healthy if you can’t read the book?
    Now it’s 1.85 trillion
    Awaiting the California Rebellion
    Bring back ROTC
    Something awful is being done to you. Tiger
    Letter of A…

  • anon says:

    It will shift back in time for the 2010 elections. Media throws the Republicans a tiny life line for about a 3 month window AFTER elections. The usual snobby coverage brought on by armies of liberal interns working to discover any dirt on anyone conservative or Republican will resume by mid-summer.

  • buddy larsen says:

    nice chart –i like a well-constructed chart sometimes.

  • Brown Line says:

    Those are interesting numbers, but not surprising. It looks like reversion to the mean, now that the passions of the campaign are subsiding.

    But what shocked me was that the Democrats’ lead in government ethics increased by a point. That, despite the appointment of tax cheats to the cabinet (several of whom had to withdraw), despite the investigations of Murtha and Dodd and Rangel, despite the leaks about Harmon and lying of Pelosi, not to mention the deficit of $1,800,000,000,000 (and counting). That amazes me. Either the electorate is not paying attention, or the Republican “brand” is more tarnished than I thought, or the Democrat-controlled media is doing a superb job of covering up. Or all of the above.

    • Moe_Lane says:

      Rasmussen said something along the lines that the government ethics one has been a problem for the GOP for a while; I’m not surprised that it resets to default in months where there’s been no actual Dems put on trial for a change. Whether that lasts after the indictments this fall is another question entirely. :)

  • Truth Fairy says:

    If the Tea Party folks (and I am one of them) want something useful and constructive to do between now and the next Congressional election, they can get off the couch, stop wishing for Reagan to float down from Heaven and infiltrate Acorn to a fare thee well.

  • Truth Fairy says:

    If the Tea Party folks (and I am one) want something useful and constructive to do between now and the next Congressional election, they can get off the couch, stop wishing for Reagan to float down from Heaven and infiltrate Acorn to a fare thee well. We will only have ourselves to blame if we sit still for this.

  • […] to use her as a scapegoat.  We shouldn’t let them.  All of this is one major reason the approval ratings for Democrats are dropping.  Others in on this one include Jules Crittenden, Don Surber, NO QUARTER, The Sundries Shack, […]

  • Yehudit says:

    Mwalimu Daudi’s comment is the most important. It doesn’t matter how right we are and how fed-up the public is if we can’t get elected.

    Two things are needed:

    1) candidates who represent what the public wants. and who can make the case that they will challenge the Obama machine in office. At this point that excludes most Republicans currently in office.

    2) The ability to keep ACORN & Co from deciding an election, whether that takes, lawyers, election officers, publicity …..

    Without BOTH of those in concert, it will not matter that John Q Public is fed up with Obama by 2010.

  • […] Moe Lane » Rasmussen and the quietly rusting Democratic advantage. As you can see, back in October it was fairly clear that Democrats were enjoying consistent leads over Republicans when it came to how much the public trusted them on various issues. It’s also fairly clear that in most cases, those leads have been savaged. Leading in four categories and tied in one may not sound wonderful; but compared to zero-for-ten that’s not half bad – particularly since it’s looking as if the Democrats are in the process of thoroughly squandering their existing trustworthiness with regard to the economy. The only real disappointment is the government trust numbers (which were much better last month**), but that’s the next project. […]

  • […] Lane points to some interesting trends in Rasmussen issue polling over the past few months, suggesting the […]

  • […] The Corner: Moe Lane points to some interesting trends in Rasmussen issue polling over the past few months, suggestingthe […]

  • […] of the GOP’s Demise Are Greatly Exaggerated Moe Lane posted this over the weekend, but I only saw it last night at the Corner and PowerlineBlog. He compares the voter trust numbers […]

  • […] Since, your re-election, having ridden in on the coattails of ‘hope’ and ‘change,’ things haven’t been going so well for many in the hinterland. Granted, ‘Hope and Change’ is a great mantra, but now, those words have become two legs of a stalking behemoth, rather than an ‘idyllic becoming.’ Due to glutinous spending and the president’s authoritarian takeover of private business, ‘hope’ and ‘change’ are now cover words for ‘increasing debt’ and ‘growing unemployment.’ The strategy of saying, “It’s all Bush’s fault,” seems to be playing itself out, being that the American voter is now moving to favor the Republicans. […]

  • […] last month I posted Rasmussen’s report that the Republicans were back to being trusted more than […]

  • […] last month I posted Rasmussen’s report that the Republicans were back to being trusted more than […]

  • […] last month I posted Rasmussen’s report that the Republicans were back to being trusted more than […]

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