Gallup: R+4 on the Generic Congressional Ballot.

Yes. Gallup.

(Via AoSHQ) Shift of eight points since July, which for Gallup represents the GOP ‘edging ahead.’ The current numbers are GOP/Democrats 48/44.  And 52/30 among independents.  And this represents registered voters, not likely ones.  Gallup tried to caveat this one every way that it could, but has to conclude:

Since Gallup regularly began using the generic ballot to measure registered voters’ preferences for the House of Representatives in 1950, it has been rare for Republicans to have an advantage over Democrats. This is likely because more Americans usually identify as Democrats than as Republicans, but Republicans can offset this typical Democratic advantage in preferences with greater turnout on Election Day. Most of the prior Republican registered-voter leads on the generic ballot in Gallup polling occurred in 1994 and 2002, two strong years for the GOP.

Particularly interesting is this amusing graph:


…and yes: the Democratic line does look uncannily like the trajectory of an airplane just after it has lost all power to the engines, mid-flight.  A real shame that this didn’t come out last Friday, huh?  There’s a bunch of Blue Dogs who probably would have appreciated the opportunity to factor this information into their long-term voting strategies.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to RedState.

1 Comment

  • The Dems can’t pass ObamaCare with abortion OR a public option- and reconciliation is just an empty threat, the remaining legislation would be a hollow shell-

    And Cap-n-tax? With the evidence looking weak lately, Obama’s own #s tanking… and 11% unemployment? Good luck!

    That leaves the only major legislation enacted -even with Democrats dominating both houses- the wholly-ineffective Porkulus.

    Obama has NO political cover on that one, due to the paucity of GOP collaborators- he owns it. And all it will ever stimulate is inflation… in the months leading right-up to midterms.

    The Democrats look to face a bloodbath next fall, with some already predicting a 100+ seat loss.

    And by 2012? People will wince at the very mention of the name “Obama”- and the GOP could take 40 states running Gilbert Gottfried- LOL

    Party’s over kiddies- time to put the grown-ups back in charge.

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