Current Charlie Cook guess: R +4 to +6 in Senate.

I’m surprised that I missed this, actually.  Then again, there were things going on last week.

Our Senate/Governor Editor, Jennifer Duffy, currently estimates that the range of outcomes in the Senate could run from a wash, with neither party gaining a net seat on the other, up to a three seat gain for Republicans. In the gubernatorial races, she sees the same likely outcome, a wash to a GOP gain of three seats.


My own view, separate from the Cook Political Report’s estimates, mirrors [House Editor David] Wasserman’s current 20-30 seat net gain for Republicans in the House, but in the Senate, I take a bit more aggressive posture. I suspect a Republican gain of between four and six seats, predicated on Democrats being unlikely to beat any Republican open-seat Senate candidate or being able to unseat any Republican Senate incumbent. Democrats will have to be more concerned with defending their own seats.

I’m personally a sunny optimist, so six (AR, CO, CT, DE, NV, PA) is more my lower limit right now. And I think that at least one supposedly ‘safe’ seat for the Democrats is going to get absolutely hammered this year – and no, I’m not saying which one. People keep laughing at me in private when I suggest it.  None the less… heck of a way to start the new year, huh?

Moe Lane

Crossposted to RedState.


  • CarolT says:


    I hope the one you are talking about is the MA special election in January. Scott Brown is working his butt off showing up everywhere with his American Idol winning daughter, Ayla. I think he has a real chance or I would not have given him any money.

    Thank you.

  • Kahich says:

    The ‘safe’ seat must be BAB’s Boxer’s. Oh! I hope!

  • Jana says:

    Man, would I love that “safe seat” to be Patty Murray here in WA. That would feel so good.

    Not that I have any idea who’d run against her except maybe Rob McKenna, our AG.

RSS feed for comments on this post.

Site by Neil Stevens | Theme by