Allahpundit’s worried and Jim Geraghty’s… not… over this report that a fake “Tea Party” candidate (I’m not going to pretend that Ashjian’s anything but that, sorry) could win the election in Nevada for Harry Reid (who has a 58% disapproval rating in the poll from said article). The scenarios involve a 9% to 11% showing for said third-party candidate, when put up against Lowden and/or Tarkanian…
Why, yes. That is precisely the path of victory that the polls showed in NJ last year when they showed Christie losing. Ask former Governor Corzine how well Daggett’s eventual numbers worked out for him. And no, individual third-party candidates typically don’t take 10% of the vote in Nevada. In fact, collectively third-party candidates don’t take 10% of the vote, either. Usually, they’re lucky to break 6%.
In other words: if this is the Democrats’ strategy, then I might as well start in on declaring DOOM for them now and save time.
PS: It’s way too soon for DOOM, of course.