Jul
16
2010

Rasmussen: road to 51 no longer runs through CA/CT.

People are paying a lot of attention to the House right now, but there’s something interesting going on in the Senate. And in some ways it should worry the Democrats more.

Let’s start by taking a look at Rasmussen’s state of the Senate races right now:

U.S. Senate Snapshot:
Held/Solid Democratic 48
Leans Democratic 1
Toss-Up 9
Leans Republican 3
Held/Solid Republican 39

Assuming that the Leans fall into line, that becomes 49/42 Democrat/Republican*, with nine seats in play: Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Missouri, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Washington, and Wisconsin. The bad news? To win back the Senate, we need to win all those races. The good news**? As Rasmussen notes:

Put it all together, and Republicans are slightly ahead in six of the nine Toss-up states. Two of the races are tied, and the Democratic candidate has the lead in one. This suggests that if the election were held today, the GOP would be favored to pick up a few more than the four seats already moving in their direction.

A lot of people will tell you that +9 GOP in one year is impossible. The same people will then proceed to tell you that +8 Democratic in 2008, right after +6 Democratic in 2006, was as inevitable as the sunrise and in fact was an expression of the laws of physics, all the while never noticing the doublethink necessary to segue from one stance to the other…

Moe Lane

*Which represents a +4 GOP pickup on its own (Arkansas, Delaware, Indiana, and North Dakota). Thanks mostly to the President and Congressional leadership, this is a bad year to be a Democrat.

**The better news? My own private list to 51 included Connecticut (Rasmussen: Safe Democratic) and California (Leans Democratic). And I still think that Fiorina is going to pull it out, particularly if Whitman wins the CA governorship.

Crossposted to RedState.

4 Comments

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  • DirtyJobsGuy says:

    As a long term resident of the Nutmeg state I’m always astonished at the reflexive support for crooked dems here. However, the polls here are not reliable now. The GOP primary is Aug 10th and once that is over the candidates can go after the dems full force. Blumenthal is very vulnerable now that the door has been cracked open by the NY Times about his statements on military service. He has a lot more skeletons in the closet than this.

  • Skip says:

    You know, 51 may be too much to hope for, but if the Republicans pull it off, as well as the House, watching the entire staffs of the broadcast divisions of ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC, CNN, Al Jazeera, and the Beeb simultaneously fail their SAN checks would definitely be entertaining TV.

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