Moe Lane

While I’m on the subject of predictions, here’s a quiet one: some time in September Nate Silver is going to announce his new House model, which will ‘amaze’ him with all the good news for Congressional Democrats that he’s getting from it.  I further predict that Silver will predict total House losses of… about 27 net seats for the Democrats: 40 Democrat and 13 Republican flips would be the number that I would use if I wanted to go with maximum galvanization of progressives, so let’s go with that.  This announcement will spill out via the New York Times and will be swiftly seized upon by the rest of the professional media: we will get three weeks or so of smug, congratulatory, and above all deeply relieved articles about the Democrats’ second wind… and it will not move the needle a hair’s-breath.

But it will keep liberals giving money and time to the Democratic leadership, so: Mission Accomplished.

Moe Lane

PS: I got the 2006 and 2008 election trends wrong.  So, by all means: have as much salt with that as you want.

First off: congratulations to Marco Rubio, Rick Scott, and all other Florida Republicans who won their primaries last night. Time to win some Florida races, folks.

Moving along, given the noteworthy vote disparity between the Democrats and GOP total results last night I thought that I’d take a look at past results and see if anything jumped out at me. Which it has, actually. The 2010 results after the fold are taken from Politico, which unfortunately has the best real-time tracker out there that I’ve found; the past results are from the Florida state government site. I picked 2006 for Governor because it was (obviously) the last election year for one, and 2004 for Senate because there was a contested primary on both sides.
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[UPDATE] Welcome, Instapundit readers. Note that I got sent this (via email, which is why no H/T). Also note that the Carnahan firebombing is looking like an inside problem. And welcome, PJTV viewers.

Amusing video of the day: Russ Carnahan (D, MO-03) runs away rather than answer a simple question on whether or not he supports the Ground Zero Mosque.

Yup, that’s some impressive leadership we’re seeing here in MO-03. Sheesh, you’d think that he’d at least admit that he has an opinion. Unless he really and truly doesn’t? You get the impression that Carnahan’s current job bores him so.

Moe Lane

PS: Ed Martin for Congress.

Finally, a good version of The Walking Dead trailer.

Allahpundit’s worried that it might not be as good as it looks; I scoff. Scoff! …Of course, it’s going to be a while before I see it: I have no cable TV.

Moe Lane

PS: I miss it surprisingly little, actually.

Because he’s a poor excuse for a man and I won’t insult women by suggesting that he was one, of course.

The NRCC wasted no time at all in reminding the world of what Alan Grayson likes to, frankly, spew on a regular basis:

It’s actually an impressive video in its brevity: the temptation to make it a twenty-minute highlight of every vicious, sexist*, and bigoted thing that Grayson’s ever said must have been difficult. Which reminds me, Grayson: that Senior Policy Advisor of yours, Matt Stoller? The one who hates Jews the ADL and the military? Does that ever lead to awkward moments at staff meetings?

Daniel Webster for FL-08. Because sometimes the cliche applies: Enough. Is. Enough.

Moe Lane

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I had the opportunity to talk with Carly yesterday on what is happening in the race right now. For those not following the Avastin controversy, it’s a cancer medication that is currently the target of a drive to have its FDA approval removed for last-stage breast cancer patients. Claims that this is primarily for financial reasons have been bolstered by this report from the BBC (via Hot Air) that the NHS is disallowing it for bowel cancer patients because it’s too expensive*. You can imagine how Carly feels about that… actually, you don’t have to imagine: you can listen to the interview.

Carly’s site is here.

Moe Lane (more…)

Twilight Zone, Golden Earring

There’s going to be a theme for a while.

Traficant has supporters?

The ex-congressman failed to meet Monday’s deadline for running as a write-in candidate to reclaim the seat he once held. His supporters, however, still believe the former congressman is entitled to have his name on the ballot as an independent.

”We should be on the ballot,” Traficant campaign coordinator Linda Kovachik told the Warren Tribune Chronicle. ”We’ll keep our feet to the fire, keep their feet to the fire until someone gets so hot there has to be a decision.”

Traficant has supporters. Unfortunately for Traficant, Traficant also has an enemy in (Democratic) Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, who is well aware that if OH-17 joins the various lists of potentially competitive races she will not have a particularly bright future in the Ohio Democratic party. That’s much more important right now than anything so picayune as a fair election – besides, she’s got enough troubles right now as it is.

Moe Lane

PS: Jim Graham is the Republican candidate for this district; so if you live in OH-17 vote for him, and encourage your Democratic friends to vote for Traficant.

Polls have closed in Florida and Vermont.  Charlie Crist is probably getting drunk right now, and for good reason: Kendrick Meek is looking to be the Democratic nominee, which means that the inevitable is finally ending its delay.  And over in FL-08, it looks like the Devil Lord of Insufficient Light may be facing Daniel Webster, after all.

I was sent this with the heading, “Will Jim Cramer’s body be found in an alley?”

You almost have to wonder. (more…)

I’m not saying that, put in a position of sufficient power and responsibility, I would initiate or sign off on a series of events that ended with Julian Assange’s head interfacing with a large-caliber bullet at supersonic velocities.  I’m merely saying that, if such a thing happened and I was made aware of the gory details afterward, I suspect I wouldn’t feel obligated to forward them along to Wikileaks.

…water wet, and that President Obama needs to fire his economic team.  Only in Washington, DC would something that would be such a blindingly obvious statement anywhere else in America be the subject of a press conference – and only in Dizzy City would it be something that needs a press conference, because otherwise the self-appointed elites who run the government right now wouldn’t even perceive it.

I mean, seriously.  Of course Obama needs to fire his economic team.  They suck at their jobs.  They promised us a ‘mere’ 8% unemployment in exchange for an unprecedented stimulus package: and then they proceeded to botch said stimulus package and have now locked us into 9.N% unemployment for the foreseeable future.  Not to mention deficits that are hard to even contemplate in any sort of meaningful way.  And then there’s the small-business killing time bomb set to explode in next year’s tax hikes… I could go on.  So, yes, please fire these people, Mr. President.  As for their replacements?

Try a phone book.

Moe Lane

[UPDATE]: See also Andrew Malcolm, complete with a surprisingly (and inexplicably) apropos picture of meerkats.