Individual race analysis is telling him 40+ lost in the House and the national totals are even better. Well, better from a certain point of view, which is not one currently shared by the Democratic party.
How bad is it? This bad:
The numbers above are taken from the latest 2010 Cook Competitive Race Chart and its closest equivalents in 2006 and 2008. I’ll spare you the triumphalism and simply note that anybody who tells you that the Democratic party is planning an offensive this year is out of his or her mind. They don’t have the money to simultaneously defend their at-risk seats and engage the GOP in any more than a literal handful of districts; in fact, they don’t have the money to defend all their at-risk seats. Odd to write that out, but it’s true: the first political death panels are convening, and there’s going to be some baffled, angry, and soon to be ex- freshman and sophomore legislators out there soon. You can imagine how upset I am on their behalf…
PS: By the way: this is what happens when you visibly don’t give a tinker’s dam about public opinion when you’re ramming deeply unpopular legislation down the electorate’s throat. You get spanked.