Oct
07
2010

Democratic Death Panel Watch, 10/07/2010.

Via Hotline, here are the latest races where the DCCC has begun the euthanasia process:

  • AZ-08.  The incumbent is Gabrielle Giffords, facing Jesse Kelly.  The DCCC has cut one week’s worth of ad buys, claiming that Giffords doesn’t need its help.  Cook rates this race as Leans Democratic; polling is very sparse, but shows a tie.
  • CO-04.  The incumbent is Betsy Markey (yes, the one who has her supporters babbling about internment camps): her opponent is Cory Gardner.  They’ve cut back her outside ads, probably because she can’t get any traction (and has supporters babbling about internment camps).  Cook rates this race as Toss-Up: the most recent polling shows Gardner ahead.
  • FL-24.  The incumbent is Suzanne Kosmas; her opponent is Sandy Adams.  Like Markey, her outside ads have been cut.  The DCCC is claiming to be planning to still match the NRCC’s buys there. Cook rates this race as Toss-Up: there is no recent polling, but RCP lists the seat as Leans GOP.
  • KS-03.  Open seat.  Democratic candidate Stephene Moore, facing Republican candidate Kevin Yoder.  The DCCC has canceled one week’s worth of ad buys. Cook rates this race as Leans Republican: there is no recent polling, but RCP lists the seat as Leans GOP.
  • NM-02.  The incumbent is Harry Teague; his opponent is Steve Pearce.  Here the DCCC is moving its ad buys down a week in either an attempt to firewall, or as a preliminary to canceling them altogether. Cook rates this race as Toss-Up: the most recent polling has Pearce ahead.

There’s also LA-02, but that might legitimately be the DCCC thinking that they don’t need to worry about that race. The article also mentions IN-08 and TX-17, but that were covered a couple of days ago.

As Ed Morrissey over at Hot Air notes on a related topic (where the DCCC is spending money now), “Democrats can spin about base turnout and loyalty all day long, but money talks and spinmeisters walk.”  Every district listed above is one where the Democratic candidate can be legitimately seen to be behind the Republican one.  But at the same time, these are not districts where the incumbents are pushovers; almost every one of them has experience in winning a difficult election.  That they’re losing now tells you a lot of how bad the wave may be.

I also wonder how many of these ‘delayed’ ad buys will become ‘disappeared’ ad buys next week. Probably more than a few.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

3 Comments

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  • Jay says:

    How much is the sheer breadth of the wave having an effect on polling suddenly competitive races, do you think? No matter how large a polling organization you are, it seems like it would be impossible to keep up everywhere that a seat may legitimately change hands.

    Suppose they could hire more people to man the phones. I suppose that would be a few jobs created or saved as a direct result of the actions of the party currently in power.

  • Steve says:

    Real Clear Politics has the House edge at 210 – 188 and if we split the 40 open seats GOP will be at 230! That should be our baseline!!

    Steve
    Common Cents
    http://www.commoncts.blogspot.com

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