…I don’t know, ladies and gentlemen. To more or less quote Wellington: it will be a close-run thing; a damned close-run thing.
Here’s the situation right now (and I’m not bothering with links):
- There are not going to be any Democratic pickups. New Hampshire, Missouri, Ohio, & North Carolina have faded; Kentucky was never as endangered at it looked, and after Conway panicked last week and threw that ridiculous attack ad, the election was effectively over; and Florida is even now melting down for the Democratic candidate. Let’s not even bring up Alvin Greene. Net change: 0.
- Arkansas, Indiana, and North Dakota have been conceded to the Republican party. Net change: +3 GOP.
- Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are approaching that status. Sestak has been reduced to using dog feces as a campaign prop and Feingold is practicing his narrative for the 2012 primaries. Net change: +2 GOP.
- Colorado, Illinois, and Nevada are all going to be tight races: but neither Giannoulias nor the two Democratic incumbents have been able to knock down their challengers. We’re going to hear about the ‘margin of cheating’ at least two of these races, but I’m saying that the trend goes our way. Net change: +3 GOP.
- That’s +8 GOP, or 49 Republican seats. We need two more for the majority; for that matter, merely having one more will make the Obama administration personally responsible for every unpopular piece of legislation that comes out of the 112th Congress.
California. Connecticut. Washington. West Virginia. I’d argue any one of those, for admittedly different reasons in each case; can we get two of them? …Maybe. And if we do only get two, one of them will pretty much have to be Washington state. It’s the one closest in terms of vote percentages, and the other three are too disimilar to each other to really be part of any kind of common trend, unless the common trend is DOUBLE-DOOM. Because we’re already in DOOM territory here, honestly.