Moe Lane

Plouffe took some time away from his current job – which is to say, rewriting the Democratic party’s rules so as to eliminate any chance of a successful primary challenge to the President in 2012 – to graciously define the Republican party’s November victory conditions for it. Apparently, according to Davy if we’re not “winning back the House, winning back the Senate and winning every major governor’s race” on Election Day then we’ve failed.  Which is an entertaining little argument, and quite clever (for a Democratic strategist), for two reasons.  The first is that it’s essentially unfalsifiable: all a Democrat has to do is declare that a particular governor’s race is ‘major’ and hey presto! – the GOP has failed.

The second reason that this is almost-clever is that while most people can see through that trap, not as many might challenge the underlying assumption that there can be a quantifiable definition of ‘victory’ at all.  Which is blatantly untrue: you see, you can win any number of seats and still not impose your political will on the civic landscape (something that the antiwar movement learned in 2007*).  Put another way: to quote SM Stirling, you win battles not by killing the enemy, but by breaking their hearts and making them run.

Which we are already doing to the Democrats in Congress. That is what victory looks like.

Davy.

Moe Lane (crosspost) (more…)

I retain a certain fondness for the Scotsman, and I always liked their annual Monopoly-themed prize contest.  The last online one that they had was kind of fun, too: you got to move your piece around the board and not win anything past some downloads and other junk like that, but it was at least giving the illusion that you were playing a game.  Contrasted to that, just picking one card out of three is a kind of lame way to not win anything.  I probably won’t even bother to keep the pieces, this time around.

Honestly, McDonald’s is usually better at this sort of promotion.  What happened?

John Nolte (via Ed Driscoll), on a Salon review of new Disney flick Secretariat that reads like someone had lost a bet:

Wow! Cross burning, xenophobia, Leni Riefenstahl, master-race, and whiteness and power, all in a review of a harmless little family flick about a horse. There’s part of me that admires O’Hehir’s ability to summon that kind of rage. Where was he when I couldn’t pull those grocery carts apart?

John’s not kidding; all of those terms are in the review.  Apparently, in this flick Secretariat was a member of ODESSA* – which, ironically, would have made me more likely to watch the film if only the director had had the courage to pursue his inner vision to such an extent.  Or something like that.

Moe Lane

*The Odessa File was actually pretty good, for a potboiler.

We have cookies.

I’m not saying that you have to go Full Metal Pachyderm or anything; but come on. Wouldn’t you rather see Rand Paul in that Senate seat? Honestly and truly? At least he’s not insulting your intelligence like the way that this Conway guy is.

Seriously.  One little bit of independence from the Democratic party line won’t do you any harm.

Moe Lane

PS: Rand Paul for Senate.

Moe Lane

If you missed Dick Blumenthal’s incredibly clueless answer to Linda McMahon’s simple question “How do you create a job?” at the last debate, don’t worry: the McMahon campaign has had boiled it down to a television ad.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovIBLQyl7HE&feature=player_embedded

And in the process they managed to do what was I would have thought would be the impossible; they managed to cram two minutes of idiocy into a thirty second clip. Including Blumenthal’s rictus grin; as God is my witness, when I watched that originally I fully expected Dick to end his ‘response’ with the happy declaration that he had just done a Number Two in his pants. (more…)

I got nothing really to base this off of, and I’m writing this while RCP is downgrading the seat – but it feels like Gillibrand’s lead is perilously (to her) shaky and could collapse at any reversal, darn it.  Then again, I’ve always been less willing than many to concede NY, so that may be coloring my perceptions.

Anyway.  DioGuardi for [Senate].  [And here I was happy to have gotten the name spelled right. Thanks, Constant Reader IJB.]

…the last one before the election. Nobody’s expecting anything much in the way of short-term news, but apparently they’re going to have revisions to the non-farm employment numbers from April 2009 to March 2010.  Translation: the current unemployment rate probably won’t go up or down much, but past ones might*.  Remember, might: also remember, we want good news.  People are hurting out there, and somebody needs to care about that, even if the current ruling party apparently doesn’t.

Moe Lane

*As MarketWatch puts it, “Friday’s new numbers could vastly alter perceptions of labor conditions. They may also change perceptions of how well the stimulus legislation worked as a job-creating program.”  It would certainly be nice if the numbers were better than we thought…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwCt0YQPn7g

What’s Up?, 4 Non Blondes

I would mock the aesthetics of this early-90s examination of the grim intersection of the visuals of grunge, goth, and steampunk, except… the hat. The hat redeems all.

I quite liked Sleepy Hollow, actually: Tim Burton’s always interesting, even if he’s sometimes a little uneven, and the movie had nice sensibilities to it.  Also, Christopher Walken.  Besides, it’s October, so maybe it’s time to do a little of the horror genre for these things.

And so, adieu to Iron Man 2.  Which had been up there for a while, really.

The video is largely self-explanatory, but here is the time-line, with links.

• Tom Carnahan owns a company called Wind Capital Group, which (unsurprisingly) produces wind energy.
• Wind power is a type of alternate energy beloved of environmental fundamentalists except when it’s in sight of private Nantucket compounds, or controlled by Native Americans. Although this might change, as the motivating/indulging force in each case died last year.
• At any rate, Tom Carnahan is the brother of Rep. Russ Carnahan (MO-03) and Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan. Democrats, of course. Robin Carnahan would later start what will probably be a doomed run for the US Senate. (more…)

Via Hotline, here are the latest races where the DCCC has begun the euthanasia process:

• AZ-08.  The incumbent is Gabrielle Giffords, facing Jesse Kelly.  The DCCC has cut one week’s worth of ad buys, claiming that Giffords doesn’t need its help.  Cook rates this race as Leans Democratic; polling is very sparse, but shows a tie.
• CO-04.  The incumbent is Betsy Markey (yes, the one who has her supporters babbling about internment camps): her opponent is Cory Gardner.  They’ve cut back her outside ads, probably because she can’t get any traction (and has supporters babbling about internment camps).  Cook rates this race as Toss-Up: the most recent polling shows Gardner ahead.
• FL-24.  The incumbent is Suzanne Kosmas; her opponent is Sandy Adams.  Like Markey, her outside ads have been cut.  The DCCC is claiming to be planning to still match the NRCC’s buys there. Cook rates this race as Toss-Up: there is no recent polling, but RCP lists the seat as Leans GOP.
• KS-03.  Open seat.  Democratic candidate Stephene Moore, facing Republican candidate Kevin Yoder.  The DCCC has canceled one week’s worth of ad buys. Cook rates this race as Leans Republican: there is no recent polling, but RCP lists the seat as Leans GOP.
• NM-02.  The incumbent is Harry Teague; his opponent is Steve Pearce.  Here the DCCC is moving its ad buys down a week in either an attempt to firewall, or as a preliminary to canceling them altogether. Cook rates this race as Toss-Up: the most recent polling has Pearce ahead.

There’s also LA-02, but that might legitimately be the DCCC thinking that they don’t need to worry about that race. The article also mentions IN-08 and TX-17, but that were covered a couple of days ago. (more…)

That’s the message of this Quin Hillyer article discussing the ways that we can still lose next month – and it’s true: don’t get cocky, and I’m saying it before Glenn Reynolds can.  Fortunately, every problem that Quin mentions can be prevented with a little focus and elbow grease; so let’s make sure that that happens.