These are all subjective examinations of the current gestalt, which is a pretentious way of saying ‘They’re all WAGs.’ Caveat emptor, and all that.
- DADT Repeal: will pass. I think that we’ve* got the votes; Northeast Republicans are just generally more comfortable with the idea; and this is one area where libertarians are going to be not in sync with social conservatives.
- DREAM Act: will not pass. Immigration issues are very touchy right now, thanks to the Democrats’ incredibly ham-handed attempt to demonize over half of the population for daring to think that existing federal immigration law should be, you know, taken seriously. Supporting this will mean the difference between a credible primary challenge and a token one for at least two Republican Senators – and could easily be the last nail in the coffin for at least four Democratic ones.
- START: will pass, but the odds are almost even. If Reid only needed sixty votes it’d pass. It’s a treaty, so he needs sixty-seven; it’ll be a close-run thing. I think.
Guess we’ll see tomorrow, huh?