You can quibble about the details*, but this is the Cook Political Report’s latest assessment at what we are looking at in terms of the Electoral votes right now:
Blue (221 EV) for the Democrats, Red (219 EV) for the Republicans, Grey (98 EV) for toss-up states; or 186D/196R/156TO if you take out leaners.
It’s a bit early to chew the data overmuch, but this much is clear: the Democratic meltdown in the Midwest is doing fun things to the 2012 election cycle. But not as much as the 2010 Census did.
*Just off the top of my head: North Carolina’s going to be harder for the GOP to take back, Maine and New Hampshire are going to be harder for the Democrats to keep, and at the rate things are going Wisconsin and Iowa may be resolved by this time next year.