So. Now that the UN has authorized a no-fly zone in Libya – which is another way of saying that we have decided to create a no-fly (and no-drive) zone in Libya, using the UN for cover – it’s being reported that the Qaddafi regime has immediately declared a cease-fire. As Glenn Reynolds put it: “Blink.”
If true: well, we should have done this a week ago. Unfortunately, we’re stuck with a President that takes forever to get to the point – and, contra Andrew Sullivan (safe link), this situation would not be “highly believable” if it were taking place under a hypothetical McCain administration. Mostly because Qaddafi wouldn’t have dared tick off the USA in the first place; Republican hawks tend to have a low opinion of him and his regime. Still, at least President Obama got to it eventually.
Sorry: I might be more effusive in my praise if the optics on this were better. And optics are important.
Moe Lane (crosspost)
PS: Tom Maguire has some links to speculations on what happens next. I suspect partition, can-kicking, and eventually a war. I would prefer a deal made where Qaddafi gives up power and goes of to exile to an island with a mansion somewhere (because that’s cheaper in the long run), but contrary to the Left’s most cherished beliefs neoconservatives do not secretly run American foreign policy.
The reality is, this took too long. He’s secured his economic base, and he’s gotten the word out that the Israelis are the ones behind the opposition, so he’s got cash and bodies flowing to support him. He’s rocked the “rebels” back enough that even without his air support, they may not be able to turn things around.
If his air power had been taken out when the “rebels” were at or near their peak, it likely would have been his end.
As always, a win-win situation for Obama. Qaddafi prevails, and Obama can say “Hey, we pushed the UN to intervene, but the rebels were just too weak.” Qaddafi fails, and Obama will take all the credit for being a leader.
Moe, he can only retire to an island if we get to bomb the island once he’s there…