Apr
07
2011

Gallup: Obama slips with African-Americans, Hispanics…

…unexpectedly.

Gallup mentions the most obvious point – the President has slipped from his historical approval rating among African-Americans (usually around 92%) all the way down to 85%* – but it kind of obscures a detail on the graph with regard to Hispanic voters. They acknowledge that the President is currently at a low with 54% of those voters, but Gallup does not point out that Obama’s approval rating dropped by double digits with those voters over a year ago and hasn’t really come back since. For that matter, the real story from that graph is that the President has a 39% approval rating among whites; his approval rating among those voters at the beginning of his term was somewhere just above 60%.

Andrew Malcolm is right to couch all of this in terms of it merely being worrisome for the President; after all, it’s early days yet. But he’s also right that Obama should be worrying about this, given that hyper-enthusiasm is precisely what his campaign needs if they seriously plan to raise a billion dollars for the 2012 campaign. In fact, i think that the billion-dollar number is going to end up being a bit of an albatross for the President: it will require a constant, probably grueling, emphasis on fundraising in order to work, and it has already forced the President to formally re-enter the electoral arena months early. In other words, the President may have been better off if he had decided not to try to beat his high score.

One last detail: the Gallup poll shows Obama’s approval among 18-29 year old voters to be 54%. In April of 2009 that number was 74%. This is not incompatible with the categories mentioned earlier (96% for African-Americans; 85% for Hispanics; 57% for whites), but it still represents a significant erosion of support among a key demographic for the President. One that is currently expected to be fueling most of the enthusiasm for Obama’s 2012 campaign, in fact; so it seems unusual that Gallup didn’t mention it at all

Moe Lane (crosspost)

*Is that meaningful? Yes and no: high African-American turnout was a key factor in flipping several Red states in 2008, but there are plenty of viable Democratic re-election strategies that don’t rely on Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida in order to work. On the other hand, the Midwest isn’t looking very friendly to Obama these days, either.

3 Comments

  • jetty says:

    “Obama’s approval among 18-29 year old voters to be 54%”

    OK, to get swept up in the “Hope and Change” thing is one thing. But to continue to approve of Obama after two years of bungling and incompetence and rigid ideology and arrogance? Who are these people?

  • [...] 1. Gallup’s new numbers on Black and Hispanic support for Obama are out. Not good. 85% among black voters. Very high indeed. Notably lower than the usual 92% he has gotten and, of note, most Democratic Presidents get. The really bad news for Obama: he’s at 54% percent among Hispanics. This does not make for a re-elected President. As I’ve stated here (to one or two jeers) put Rubio on the ticket and that 54% falls below 50 – and swings some close Obama 2008 states red. The myth that a growing Hispanic population means Dem majorities forever is just that – a myth. 2nd and 3rd generation inmigrants regardless of nationality drift Right. Conservative social positions among hispanics will also push many to the GOP. The confusion here comes from California’s move to the D column after an anti illegal backlash in the late 80s and early 90s. While this helped Democrats another larger factor was the Clintonization of the west coast of California from North Orange County all the way to Humbolt County.  Moderate and liberal Democrats finally began out numbering inland conservatives. Hispanics are not forever committed to the Democratic Party. Dems need to get over the idea that more brown voters equal more blue votes by default. Obama is in serious trouble if Rubio or someone like him kicks into high gear and becomes a Sotomayor figure in 2012. Even more damning: Support among 18-29 year old voters is down 20 points to 54% as well. The Obama fad is spent. [...]

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