I think David Prosser has won his WI Supreme Court race.

At least, for him to lose it at this point will be actually be a bit of a surprise.  The numbers don’t seem to be there for his opponent.

First, let’s look at the total votes cast in Milwaukee and Outagamie counties (the two remaining to be canvassed), as of right now.  Prosser’s current vote margin: 7,310.

Milwaukee % Outagamie % Combined %
Prosser 98,933 43% 24,775 57% 123,708 46%
Kloppenburg 128,644 57% 18,885 43% 147,529 54%
227,577 43,660 271,237

Assuming that there’s simply no sudden appearance of 7,311 Kloppenburg ballots – and I invite any Democratic election fraud enthusiasts to try; I enjoy watching perp walks – the Democrats will need a net shift of those ballots for the same amount.  That would mean a net 3 percentage point shift towards the Democrats… which is a lot, in this context.  To put it another way: 7,310 votes is (in my opinion) outside of the margin of fraud.

As to turnout… the AP reported that the total combined votes for the 2011 Supreme Court race was 271,237 for the two counties, and 1,479,976 statewide.  The 2010 Governor’s election had a turnout of  406,276 for those two counties, and 2,160,832 statewide: in other words, voter turnout for the two counties for the 2011 Supreme Court race was 67% of turnout for the 2010 Governor’s race… and statewide turnout in 2011 was 68% of 2010’s.  In other words: on first look there isn’t anything obviously unusual about turnout in either county, in context; which is another argument against there being uncounted ballots that will appear in the re-canvassing*.

Bottom line?  I’m going to be surprised if the vote totals change from the re-canvassing process.   I recommend that the Democrats instead demand a very expensive and time-consuming recount, primarily because as it stands they will have to pay for it.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

*This is important because the discrepancy in Waukesha county’s vote total was noticed at the time, which is one major reason why election fraud accusations are mostly coming from the fringe.

5 thoughts on “I think David Prosser has won his WI Supreme Court race.”

  1. Contra to my earlier comment, there is a likelyhood that a Madison judge would force the state to pay for the recount. You know, “for the public good”.

  2. One of her own staff members told a reporter that if the rep. party wanted to go thru all that time,trouble, and money to be her guest. She stood by Kloppenburgs win. NOW, lets see if she will eat her own words and go for the very expensive and long recount. Course she can always hire Al Frankens lawyer like ive heard. Lets just get back to it WI. and she can go back to putting 80 yr old farmers in jail after heart surgery and Prosser can return to his job again

  3. Aruges, I’d like to think they wouldn’t dare. I’d like to. But I guess we’ll see.

  4. According to the blog linked in this post if the margin is between 1/2 and 2 percent of the total votes cast (or counted should I say?) the losing candidate only has to pay $5 per ward for a recount. Above 2% the requester must pay all costs.

    Also, according to the post Prosser would need 7400 votes to hit the 1/2 percent number. I don’t know how that amount changes based on the additional 14000 votes.

    Here is a question for the forum, will Kloppenburg concede?

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