Jan
21
2012

#rsrh Tonight’s SC prediction, and a suggestion.

In order:

  1. Gingrich
  2. Romney
  3. Santorum
  4. Paul

…and if Paul ends up being in third place then it’s time for Rick Santorum to leave the race. :shrug: Just the way it is, and if that reasonably dispassionate analysis bothers anybody then I suggest that they take a philosophical view on the subject.  Given that I was (reasonably) expected to do that myself – twice – you’ll understand if my sympathies are somewhat, ah, muted.

8 Comments

  • Kay B. Day says:

    I think Santorum will stay in–to help Romney.

    I called it for Newt earlier this week after talking to (lost count) many South Carolinians. That’s my home state. As I listened to media talk about the people there, I realized the lack of understanding about the South and about the state.

    I’ve heard some buzz about a brokered convention. I surely hope that doesn’t happen. It would just benefit the Democrats.

    I’m still not over the Perry exit, but I saw that coming too and figured I better start trying to help build support for the only person remaining that might be able to address what I see as critical concerns–the size of government (indexed to personal liberty)–taxes and spending and reducing the divisiveness in our country.

    Frankly, I have wanted to thump GOP power brokers in the head since October. They so blew this. I recall A. Coulter’s words–something along the lines of ‘Republicans snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.’

  • Aruges says:

    The great unanswered question continues to be “Why didn’t better candidates run?” We only had three non silly candidates in this race. Pawlenty got zero traction, couldn’t raise money, crapped out early. Romney decided that he didn’t need to campaign for conservative support and just decided to play the “I’m Inevitable” card, which is great until you’re no longer “Inevitable” and you find yourself without a winning campaign message or grassroots support. Not apologizing for Romneycare and his super lame economic message (the “You got a better argument?” comment on Laura Ingraham’s show particularly grates) leave him with no strength other than personal wealth and party insider support, neither of which make him particularly strong in the general. Perry should have been “The Guy”, but he made a fool of himself and his campaign staff didn’t seem to understand that national campaigns are different from state campaigns.

    Damn shame.

  • Skip says:

    So with the relatively early returns in, looks like you nailed it Moe, with Gingrich getting a fairly big win.

    TBH, I’ve basically ignored the race so far because it’s been pretty clear that 1) I’m not really going to like the candidate and 2) whoever it is is an improvement over Obama, so in the end I’ll end up holding my nose and voting for them. I know you liked Perry, Moe, and I was marginally for him, but less so than you, because I’ve been in Texas for my whole life, and I see him as a typical Southern Democrat from when I was growing up. The Democratic party no longer tolerates big government moderates who are pro-life, but Perry isn’t particularly different than he was 25 years ago.

    So tonight’s really the first night I’ve paid attention. So talking about the candidates. First, Romney. His speech tonight was a good speech, and I’m uncomfortable with the attacks on him for his financial success, but his inability to defend himself against them makes me think he’s not a good message-bearer. And as for the rest of it, if I for a second actually believed him on a small-government freedom platform, I could whole-heartedly support him, but his whole political history basically tells me that he’s lying through his teeth on this. He’s pandering, but at least he’s pandering to the right folks. Second, Gingrich. The personal stuff doesn’t bug me (or most folks, probably) because we expect our politicians to be scumbags, on average. Sure, there’s the occasional non-scumbag, but there’s a reason that politicians are down there with lawyers and used car salesmen in regard. What Gingrich does really well is articulate conservative principles and attack, and that’s something we need. Of the folks left in, he’s got my vote (assuming Texas actually gets a primary this year). In many respects he’s the anti-Romney, he’s convinced he’s right, and you’ll never move him. This is great for the 90% or so I agree with him, but on the other 10%, well, you just have to deal with it. Third, Santorum. The only thing that Santorum has to campaign for is as a potential kingmaker in a brokered convention, so he should probably stay in as long as that’s still plausible. And finally, He Who Must Not Be Named. HWMNBN is a frustrating candidate, because about 75% of his platform is stuff that every Republican should be behind (and too few actually are in the party hierarchy). But the loony 25% taints the other 75%. I don’t really have a problem with him staying in, and I hope he wins Virginia.

  • Skip says:

    One other thing – I don’t think any of the 4 remaining candidates are capable of beating Obama, but Obama’s definitely capable of losing this election, and Not Obama winning by default. So in that respect, all of the non-Voldemort candidates are fine, and if they get elected, they should have Congressional majorities.

  • Finrod says:

    You’re not the only one that’s on their third candidate. A lot of us went Palin –> Cain –> Gingrich.

  • Aruges says:

    I was kind of hoping I would feel happy that Romney will finally have to work to earn the nomination. But I have zero love for Gingrich. I want him to give Romney a hell of a run, but fail in the end. He’s a useful foil, but I have 0 faith that he can win in the fall. I love his energy and drive, but his personal failures and his leadership failures in the house just disqualify him.

    This whole fiasco of a primary has marred my view of many of my “heroes”. EE doesn’t handle disappointment well and seems prone to hysterics. Reading him today I got the impression he actually wanted the Republicans to lose the house and not take the senate. Yeah. That will show them. (facepalm)

    Stacy McCain, (temperamental and impish as always) seemed unable to back any candidate who wasn’t a complete joke. Then he goes on and on about how he just knew the Perry campaign was a doomed from the get go. This from a guy who was a one man cheer squad for Herman Cain.

    NRO has not been at it’s best. Too many Cheerleaders and Doomsayers and very little analysis. Jim Geraghty, usually indispensable as source of information, has just seemed off.

    The American Spectator seems like it’s been taken over by isolationists and the BDS crowd.

    Damn it, I’m rambling.

    • Moe_Lane says:

      Aruges: it’s pretty much like this every cycle, from what I’ve seen. Meanwhile, our opposite numbers on the Other Side are sitting there stewing about the fact that we can at least get our politicians to do things, and they can’t.. IOW, we’re not the only ones with problems… :)

  • […] Called it.  Not that getting the order was all that hard, or even unsurprising; also note that I […]

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