Feb
03
2012

#rsrh Is this the November results map?

Maybe.

Map generated via 270 to Win: and it’s based, more or less, on this Gallup report that the Democratic party’s partisan affiliation advantage has taken a nose-dive in state after state.  I say more or less because I looked at the numbers, noted that they were based on registered voters, then applied the usual rough-and-tumble conversion (essentially, you add or subtract two points in favor of the GOP to any registered voter sample to get an idea of what the likely voter results are going to be).  This gives us a 272/266 squeaker in favor of the GOP… and a photo-finish in Florida.

Because the second time as farce, that’s why.

Moe Lane

PS: Eagle-eyed readers will note that Kentucky and West Virginia are listed as blue states in this scenario.  That’s a bit problematical, sure – but then if Obama doesn’t dump his current Vice Albatross and replace him with somebody who can let the Democrats compete in the Mississippi River valley then the President is doomed anyway.

5 Comments

  • Doug Stewart says:

    If the stupid dunderheads in my stupid commonwealth of a stupid residence don’t nominate a stupid Obama ’08 voter for the GOP Sen. slot, then we might flip our stupid commonwealth to red too.

    Stupid Corbett.

  • Catseye says:

    As I said with the other map I view these as best case Obama scenarios. This is going to be a very Bad year.

  • Demosthenes says:

    Yeah…I think Kentucky and West Virginia are both staying red. Although I’m not sure we flip both Colorado and Nevada. But even if we don’t flip either, my realistic worst-case baseline map already shows 270-268 (changes from 2008: Republicans lose nothing, flip FL, IN, NC, NH, OH, VA, and that one electoral vote in NE). Adding any Mountain West states, or any additional Rust Belt states, is just a comfort margin at that point.

  • acat says:

    Colorado’s going to be interesting .. the Dems invested quite a bit in changing the State, be good to know if it works.
    .
    .
    Note also that Obama support has collapsed quite a bit among Mormons and a lesser bit among Jews and the Dems face increased spending in States not usually competitive.

  • jetty says:

    Obama won’t get over 200. Just sayin’.

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