While I see Ed Morrissey’s point (I don’t know if I agree with it, but I see it) about whether it’s a big deal right now whether or not Barack Obama comes out in favor of same-sex marriage or not…
…it’s unimaginable that enthusiasm for Obama among black voters would suffer much, even if he reversed himself on gay marriage. Even a slight reduction in turnout would be a rather doubtful assumption. If Obama’s hold on this demographic is that fragile, he’s already lost the election. The swing-state vote is a more realistic concern, but the current vacillation won’t help if those voters are keying on this topic, either, and they almost certainly aren’t.
…on the national level, I should note that Barack Obama won North Carolina by less than 14K votes. Now, I don’t consider North Carolina to be particularly in play this year; and probably, neither does Ed. But the media is still obliged by the polling* to pretend that NC is gettable by the Democrats this year; more to the point, so is Barack Obama. So… I’m not expecting much in the way of movement on the issue, there.
Call me a cynic.