May
16
2012

The call for Mickey Mouse as a write-in in the CA-DEM Primary!

Slightly contra Instapundit, this call for Mickey Mouse as a write-in on the California ballot is a blogger’s joke rather than an actual movement [UPDATE: I am informed in comments here that this is meant absolutely seriously; please be assured that I had no intention of mocking either the sentiment or the activity], but if it’s kidding then it’s kidding on the square.  And it’s illustrating something that is perhaps being under-reported: the way that Obama’s not been doing all that well in the primaries for an incumbent.

I mean, yes: we’ve had it noted that Obama only racked up 59.4% of the West Virginia primary vote; 80.9% of New Hampshire’s; and 79.2% of North Carolina’s.  But here are some other primary race vote totals, thus far (all via The Green Papers): Rhode Island, 83.4%.  Louisiana, 76.5%. Alabama, 80.8%. Massachusetts, 81.2%, Oklahoma, 57.1%.  To give you a baseline… if you remove places like American Samoa or Guam, if I read this right in 2004 George Bush never dipped below 89.5% (Idaho) of the primary vote in states he won and 79.6% (New Hampshire) in states that he didn’t.  Other states of note in 2004, to give you an idea: Alabama, 92.8%. Kentucky, 92.5%. Massachusetts, 90.6%. Rhode Island, 84.9%.

I note the Bush comparison not to make a direct one – I do not think that we can really quantify the respective partisan enthusiasms of 2004 Republicans and 2012 Democrats.  I do bring it up because it’s becoming clear that the Democratic voters in various states are getting restless. Or perhaps ‘volatile’ is a better word; while most of the Democrats voting in protest in the primaries will vote for Obama in the general, they’re generally not showing that they’re particularly happy about having to do that.  And unhappy voters just… vote.

I would be interested to see how the media will report this if the trend continues, but unfortunately I don’t live in the alternate universe where mainstream media sources provide that kind of analysis on Democratic candidates.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

PS: I really do want to caution people about reading too much into these numbers; a lot of these states have long histories of using the primaries to spout off.  But if it’s legitimate to talk about North Carolina and West Virginia and New Hampshire, then it’s legitimate to note that the additional examples of Massachusetts and Rhode Island and Louisiana suggest that this is all not a series of unfortunate coincidences, or however that phrase goes.

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