…I’d be giving the following percentages:
- Individual Mandate struck down: 40%
- Full repeal: 30%
- Fully upheld: 25%
- Both sides told that the individual mandate is actually a tax, so come back when somebody’s actually being dinged by it (the ‘nightmare option’): 5%
Note that this is how I’m guessing that the court will score it. When it comes to how they should score it then the only real question is whether it’d be a full repeal, or the nightmare option. Also: the nightmare option would be higher percentage, except that I’m morally certain that the court is sick and tired of having to do Congress’ job for it.
Anyway, that’s my guess. We’ll know in the next couple of weeks whether I’m right.