Jul
20
2012

#rsrh NRCC passes DCCC in fundraising in June.

Good news for the NRCC, of course – but it’s also kind of anticlimactic, at this stage of the game.  The DCCC was ahead last month, the NRCC was ahead the month before that… I kind of expect that we’re going to see the two committees fighting it out for pole position for the rest of this election cycle.

Besides, Stu Rothenberg doesn’t thinks that it matters, anyway:

With Republicans holding 242 seats (including vacancies that had GOP incumbents), Democrats need a wave-like victory to win back the House. There is no evidence that a wave is forming, and the polarizing nature of the presidential election and division of power in Washington, D.C., makes a wave unlikely.

[snip]

Given the current outlook, a Democratic gain of 10 to 12 House seats would have to be regarded as an extremely good outcome for the party, and a net GOP gain is not impossible. What does seem impossible, at least at this point, is a Democratic takeover of the House in November.

I’m not seeing it, either.  To vastly oversimplify: 2010 acted as a major reset for Democratic gains in the House in 2006 and 2008.  Such reset was viciously Darwinian, which means that the most vulnerable incumbents are mostly gone already.  What’s left are the freshmen – most of whom are pretty safe in their seats – and some lingering Blue-in-Red districts (which have seen a lot of retirements from their Democratic incumbents). Couple that with some subtle redistricting and a GOP electorate ready to vote and you end up with… not much changing, really.

I think.

Moe Lane

5 Comments

  • OU812 says:

    But can we get the Senate Moe? Keeping the House and possibly getting the WH mean nothing if we can’t get the Senate. Otherwise Harry Reid will still block any bills – e.g., repeal Obamacare, jobs bills, budgets, anything to rein in the national debt, etc. And things will be just as bad…Sorry, you know me the pessimist.

    I wish I could be more optimistic like you, but then again, look who we have in the WH now.

  • Spegen says:

    Agree, without 50 seats, nothing happens. Even with 50 seats, Reid will rediscover the value of the filibuster.

  • BigGator5 says:

    Good news for the NRCC United States, of course…

    Fix it for you. You’ve got to be more careful Moe.

  • OU812 says:

    Spegen – True Dat, although given the debt crisis, budgets at least can be passed without filibusters. We HAVE to get the Senate, and am not 100% convinced we can do that. And ideally, more than a 51-49 majority to take into account people like Susan Collins, Scott Brown and John McCain.

  • Patrick Thomas says:

    With flipping so many of the 2006 freshmen senators, I think a majority will be doable.

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