Good news for the NRCC, of course – but it’s also kind of anticlimactic, at this stage of the game. The DCCC was ahead last month, the NRCC was ahead the month before that… I kind of expect that we’re going to see the two committees fighting it out for pole position for the rest of this election cycle.
Besides, Stu Rothenberg doesn’t thinks that it matters, anyway:
With Republicans holding 242 seats (including vacancies that had GOP incumbents), Democrats need a wave-like victory to win back the House. There is no evidence that a wave is forming, and the polarizing nature of the presidential election and division of power in Washington, D.C., makes a wave unlikely.
Given the current outlook, a Democratic gain of 10 to 12 House seats would have to be regarded as an extremely good outcome for the party, and a net GOP gain is not impossible. What does seem impossible, at least at this point, is a Democratic takeover of the House in November.
I’m not seeing it, either. To vastly oversimplify: 2010 acted as a major reset for Democratic gains in the House in 2006 and 2008. Such reset was viciously Darwinian, which means that the most vulnerable incumbents are mostly gone already. What’s left are the freshmen – most of whom are pretty safe in their seats – and some lingering Blue-in-Red districts (which have seen a lot of retirements from their Democratic incumbents). Couple that with some subtle redistricting and a GOP electorate ready to vote and you end up with… not much changing, really.