Aug
20
2012

On that potentially troublesome Cook County poll.

Well, troublesome for Barack Obama.

The Daily Caller reported on a poll today that gave a rather remarkable result: it showed Barack Obama ahead of Mitt Romney 49 to 37… in Cook County, Illinois: which of course includes the City of Chicago.  Being under 50% in what can be considered the ultimate Democratic stronghold is not good news for the President.  In 2008 Cook County went for Obama over McCain 67/32; in 2010 it went for Quinn over Brady 54/40… which helped make the difference from Obama’s blowout 62/37 win statewide in 2008, and Quinn’s squeaker 47/46 win in 2010.  Put another way: if this poll is accurate, Obama’s got trouble in Illinois.

Since this report has been making the rounds of the Internet, I thought that I’d look into it a bit.  It turns out the poll comes from McKeon & Associates, which has been polling in Illinois since at least the 1980s.  A quick call to Michael McKeon got me access to the poll itself, which I’ll be talking about after the fold.

OK, to start: poll of 629 registered voters, not commissioned for a specific campaign (they were looking at something else, saw an interesting development, and went back to get a full survey). Notable breakdowns: 49/51 Chicago/Suburbs, 48/30/22 Democratic/Independent/Republican, 48/52 male/female, 62/24/10 White/Black/Hispanic. Independents [break] for Romney 43/31; but what’s really hurting Obama in this poll are his undecideds.  He’s winning Democrats 79/8… and African-American voters 70/5, with the remainder being undecided.  Now, before anyone objects; I don’t expect that one quarter of the Chicago African-American electorate is going to end up pulling the lever for Romney in November.  However, that doesn’t mean that they’re going to end up pulling the lever for Obama, either.  In fact, they may not end up pulling a lever at all.

All in all, this poll will not cause anybody to suddenly declare Illinois to be a swing state, nor should it; Barack Obama has a home-field advantage here, and even a campaign team as maladroit as his is should be able to bring in the win.  But it is nonetheless not a good poll for Obama, largely because it argues that the Democratic enthusiasm gap seen elsewhere is very, very real.  Even in Illinois.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

11 Comments

  • Catseye says:

    A lot of people who voted for O’Bama in 2008 won’t be voting this year, they are that disappointed in the results. I’m running into that attitude a lot. That is when they admit they voted for O’Bama there are a lot of people who won’t admit they did.

  • JeffV says:

    we’re in ur base killin ur d00ds

  • Darin H says:

    48/22 D/R split? Giggity!

  • OU812 says:

    OK, everyone (esp. Moe) knows me to be a pessimist (and I still am). But I will make an exception here when I say how can this not make Illinois a toss-up state? Being from the Midwest originally, the ONLY reason IL goes Democrat is Chicago (Cook County). If the polling in that place is egregious, as it’s shown, then IL could very well be a toss-up or light blue at the very least. Meaning you-know-who would have to spend tons of money here. Or am I being overly optimistic and setting myself up for a huge letdown?

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  • Skip says:

    @OU812 it doesn’t make Illinois a swing state because this poll obviously undersampled a key Democratic constituency – the dead. Seriously, there’s no way that Illinois goes GOP, if in the days leading up to the election it shows that Obama’s behind 20 thousand votes, they’ll manufacture 30 thousand fake ones. You’ll see 120% turnout, which the MFM will just attribute to a good GOTV effort.

  • jetty says:

    48/30/22 D/I/R, and Obama couldn’t break 50. Mene mene…

  • gracepmc says:

    Death, taxes and Cook County for the Dems.

  • Murgatroyd says:

    You’ll see 120% turnout, which the MFM will just attribute to a good GOTV effort.
     
    Wasn’t it the 2004 election that had 107% turnout in Philadelphia? Yet the talking heads in the media insist that voting fraud doesn’t exist.

  • [...] it is just hard to believe Obama could ever lose Illinois. On the other hand as analyzed by Moe Lane, these numbers should be troublesome for Obama and bring up the issue of the enthusiasm gap for [...]

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