Sep
28
2012

#rsrh No, sorry, Ohio is a two-party state. Unless Perot runs again, I guess.

I get that Reason.com has an understandable (if ultimately self-defeating) affinity towards the Libertarian party, but this wishful thinking piece about how Gary Johnson could give Ohio to Obama is, well, absurd.

Rep Dem 3rd
2008 46.9% 51.5% 1.6%
2004 50.8% 48.7% 0.5%
2000 50.0% 46.5% 3.5%
1996 41.0% 47.4% 11.6%
1992 38.4% 40.2% 21.5%
1988 55.0% 44.1% 0.9%
1984 58.9% 40.1% 1.0%
1980 51.5% 40.9% 7.6%
1976 48.7% 48.9% 2.4%
1972 59.6% 38.1% 2.3%

That chart (numbers more or less from here) literally tracks every past Presidential election in my lifetime; and in that time the third party vote – note, NOT the Libertarian vote; the total third party vote – has cracked 5% precisely three times: Ross Perot in 1992 and 1996, and John Anderson in 1980.  Gary Johnson does not have the resources of either candidate, and he certainly doesn’t have the personality and/or ability to draw a crowd that Ross Perot had (I say this as somebody who voted for Perot in 1992, although not in 1996*).  And it’s almost October. And Gary Johnson will not be at the debates.  And Ohio… doesn’t really support third parties.

Sorry, guys, but this one’s going to be between the Big Two.

Moe Lane

*I was still a Democrat back then, and I voted for Clinton. I make no secret of this.

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