I get that Reason.com has an understandable (if ultimately self-defeating) affinity towards the Libertarian party, but this wishful thinking piece about how Gary Johnson could give Ohio to Obama is, well, absurd.
| Rep | Dem | 3rd | |
| 2008 | 46.9% | 51.5% | 1.6% |
| 2004 | 50.8% | 48.7% | 0.5% |
| 2000 | 50.0% | 46.5% | 3.5% |
| 1996 | 41.0% | 47.4% | 11.6% |
| 1992 | 38.4% | 40.2% | 21.5% |
| 1988 | 55.0% | 44.1% | 0.9% |
| 1984 | 58.9% | 40.1% | 1.0% |
| 1980 | 51.5% | 40.9% | 7.6% |
| 1976 | 48.7% | 48.9% | 2.4% |
| 1972 | 59.6% | 38.1% | 2.3% |
That chart (numbers more or less from here) literally tracks every past Presidential election in my lifetime; and in that time the third party vote – note, NOT the Libertarian vote; the total third party vote – has cracked 5% precisely three times: Ross Perot in 1992 and 1996, and John Anderson in 1980. Gary Johnson does not have the resources of either candidate, and he certainly doesn’t have the personality and/or ability to draw a crowd that Ross Perot had (I say this as somebody who voted for Perot in 1992, although not in 1996*). And it’s almost October. And Gary Johnson will not be at the debates. And Ohio… doesn’t really support third parties.
Sorry, guys, but this one’s going to be between the Big Two.
Moe Lane
*I was still a Democrat back then, and I voted for Clinton. I make no secret of this.
In 1980 they thought it was the guy from “Yes”.
Funny, Rob. I always thought the Anderson voters represented the portion of the GOP who lacked the balls to vote for Reagan….
Side note – this article over at CATO has some similarly interesting metrics re. Libertarians.
http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/poll-shows-romney-winning-high-water-mark-for-libertarian-vote/
Mew
Hey, with a lot of D’s disappointed with Obama, but not quite ready to go R, this could be a good year for the Green party
Just speaking as a quasi-libertarian (not the full “l” libertarian like acat) – it kind of makes me nervous to think of what the guy who had an American jailed for exercising first amendment rights and usurped the power of Congress via fiat was telling Putin when he talked about “flexibility”.
or for that matter what the heck, “economic patriotism” actually means?
That’s okay Moe, I voted for Jimmy Carter in 1980…
Hey, I used to have to vote for Jim Jeffords, which is pretty much the same thing as voting for a Democrat
Dammit, this is why we need approval voting. If the Republicans would at least try it in the primaries, they probably would win more elections and cut down on the fratricide.
If the race is close enough for a third party to matter, voter fraud will be a bigger concern.
Look at 1976, though. Only .2% between the major parties, and 3rd parties had 2.4%. Not that that necessarily means any one third party tipped the scales, but it easily could have done….
Gary Johnson vs Zombies: http://ow.ly/e5bCw