Oct
17
2012

#rsrh The ultimate Democratic firewall: Corzine vs. Deeds.

I suspect that a bunch of people are assuming that the current firewall of IA/OH/NH/NV is the last possible one standing between the Democrats and utter, total DOOM.  Crack it, and the campaign collapses.  Which is… not quite true.  Oh, crack it and the Obama campaign loses; but even if it loses it will still go down swinging in places like MI and PA.

Why?

Because Barack Obama is at the outer limit of how much he can be an imposition on his own party, that’s why.

Below is a map of the Republicans running the table. This is one where we grab everything we can, at once. It is not meant to be a representation of the final map; but it is the Democrats’ Nightmare Map.

That, by the way, would be a popular vote blowout – which segues to the next question: what happens in the down-ticket races in this scenario?  Answer: Chaos and Old Night for the Democratic Party. The Democrats would probably lose even more seats in every section of the country, and the question about the Senate results would be Can the Republicans get to sixty?  And that’s not even taking into account the state and/or local races… and while the Obama campaign might not really care about its own party’s long-term prospects, the party certainly does.

Hence the Corzine/Deeds comparison.  In 2009, Democrats in VA ended up with a fantastically bad candidate (Creigh Deeds) and they ended up… just giving up.  Meanwhile, Democrats in NJ ended up with a fantastically bad candidate (Jon Corzine) and they ended up going down fighting.  End result: the Democratic party in VA took a severe beating in 2009 and 2010 on downticket state and federal level, and the Democratic party in NJ did not.  It is exceedingly unlikely that the national Democratic party leadership is unaware of this problem; and they certainly don’t want to lose any more elected officials to Obama’s foolishness than they can possibly help.  So… they make a fighting retreat.

All of which is a rather long-winded way of saying that if you’re wondering three days before the election why the Obama campaign is still grimly holding on, it’s not necessarily because they still think that they can win.  They merely will be still thinking that they can avoid a rout.

Moe Lane

16 Comments

  • earlgrey says:

    This is like porn for conservatives. What is $8 a minute? Hope I didn’t offend?

  • Shawn says:

    IOW, Obama is trying to stave off the inverse of what the GOP endured in 2008.

    While I don’t think Obama is actually any better a campaigner than McCain, he is surrounded by the Chicago Machine, and a still-slavishly loyal Media, so I suspect it will go ‘slightly’ better.

  • Doug says:

    There is one additional factor (besides the dem handling of their campaigns) that may have also influenced the respective outcomes: the partisan index of each state, with NJ obviously being much bluer (and thus more willing to stick with the democrat). The point is, America overall is much closer to VA than NJ – so perhaps a route is still possible even with dems going down fighting…

  • Catseye says:

    I’m pulling for that map but than I would I’m in Michigan.

  • qixlqatl says:

    So, the Democrats are nearing the “Sauve qui peut” point…. excellent 🙂

  • Spegen says:

    Would like to see more action here in MI, all I see are Obama adds. The senate race that I was hoping would be competitive seems to be a snoozer. The initiatives on the ballot are naked power grabs by special interests and the unions. Nationally I am optimistic, but MI may be screwed long term

  • Mija 'acat' Cat says:

    Earlgrey, hit the donation button?
    .
    Catseye, I’m hoping my vote may count in 2016…
    .
    Mew

  • Catseye says:

    We do have one ace up our sleeve in Michigan the GM bailout. People are not as universally pleased as O’Bama thinks also a lot of the Bond Holders were retired UAW people and they know how to hold a grudge. The bailout created far more problems for the Dems then they know about and they’ve done zilch to deal with the Blowback.

  • Spegen says:

    Catseye: whether or not Romney wins MI, more damage can be done by the union initiatives that would kill any walker style reform that is badly needed. Also the dems are promoting 3 hard left justices or supreme court but selling them as tough on crime. Snyder missed his chance to break the unions grip on power in this state and therefore has emboldened them

  • Catseye says:

    Spegen I know but we do have a chance in November to set them back on their heels, and continue the work of turning things around. I continue to Believe!

  • qsclues says:

    Apparently, Obama just bought ad time in Minnesota, and Jill Biden is coming for a visit. I can understand the radio time, since western Wisconsin gets Twin Cities radio, but why a campaign surrogate, too? Are they honestly worried about Minnesota? If so, they’re toast on a stick.

  • Doug Stewart says:

    qsclues:
    Head-fake? Since Jill is fairly low-profile a “get”, maybe they’re trying to get the GOP to divert funds/attention to another white whale and keep them out of PA?

  • earlgrey says:

    Yes. Acat, I will be hitting the donation button Friday. At a trade show today. Appreciate the reminder.

  • tnfriendofcoal101368 says:

    BOOOOBBBB SHRUUUUUMMMMM time. The Dems always call him in when they need a scapegoat for why they lost. Shrum has made a good living by being a willing scapegoat. Go on Axe make the call, you know it’s time….

  • tnfriendofcoal101368 says:

    oh, Moe there is one downside, I don’t think you have considered: the endless rounds of I told you so’s, Dick Morris will subject us too. ok, you’re right – it’s worth it.

  • NotSoBlueStater says:

    My Democrat activist and MN native in-laws are here. I got to tell them about the MN ad buys. I love them too much to gloat, but is it okay to say I didn’t hate it?

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