The race continues to be close when looking at the top-line data. On one hand, President Obama leads on the overall ballot by one-point (49%-48%). On the other hand, amongst voters making a definite choice, Romney has a one-point advantage (43%-42%). However, when you look past that top-line data, most all, if not all the key factors weigh in Mitt Romney’s favor.
Among those most likely to vote – the combination of those saying they have already voted (15% of the Electorate) and those who say that they are extremely likely to vote (67% of the Electorate) – Romney has a five-point advantage (51%-46%). Obama has an eight-point advantage (53%-45%) among those who have already voted while Romney has a nine-point advantage (53%-44%) among those who say they are extremely likely to vote.
Read the whole thing, obviously. Also, it makes sense that RCP is using the O+1 49/48 poll: it is, after all, a poll and the above is a prediction.
— Casey Mattox (@AllianceCMattox) October 29, 2012