Oct
29
2012

Here’s the Romney +5 “Vote Election Model.”

The basic meat of the in-house analysis of this Politico/GWU/Battleground +1 Obama poll.

The race continues to be close when looking at the top-line data. On one hand, President Obama leads on the overall ballot by one-point (49%-48%). On the other hand, amongst voters making a definite choice, Romney has a one-point advantage (43%-42%). However, when you look past that top-line data, most all, if not all the key factors weigh in Mitt Romney’s favor.

Among those most likely to vote – the combination of those saying they have already voted (15% of the Electorate) and those who say that they are extremely likely to vote (67% of the Electorate) – Romney has a five-point advantage (51%-46%). Obama has an eight-point advantage (53%-45%) among those who have already voted while Romney has a nine-point advantage (53%-44%) among those who say they are extremely likely to vote.

Read the whole thing, obviously. Also, it makes sense that RCP is using the O+1 49/48 poll: it is, after all, a poll and the above is a prediction.

Moe Lane

Via:

6 Comments

  • acat says:

    This .. is not good. Not that the race is close – that’s bad – but that the reporting is, deliberately or otherwise, making it seem closer than it really is.
    .
    This is the setup for a repeat of 2000, the setup for “Romney’s illegitimate, it’s stolen!”, the setup for all kinds of mischief and mayhem.
    .
    I’d say something about “first against the wall when the revolution came” but .. that joke is getting uncomfortable.
    .
    Mew

    • Moe_Lane says:

      Not really, acat: there’s a legitimate difference here between the two things. The O+1 is a poll showing the horse race; the R+5 is a prediction of how the horse race will play out. You really shouldn’t put the latter among the former, and it took the ‘sphere about an hour to figure out what the hell was going on here anyway. It’s not immediately obvious, in other words. 🙂

  • acat says:

    Moe, I see your point .. I was speaking more generally, not about this specific poll but about the false narrative and the obvious, from my vantage point, outcome of that narrative.
    .
    Mew

  • tnfriendofcoal101368 says:

    The battleground poll is itself a poll that is done jointly by Lake Research Partners and the Tarrance Group. Celinda Lake (Lake Research) is a Democratic pollster; Ed Goeas (Tarrance) is a Republican pollster. The politico battleground includes an analysis from Lake Research and the Tarrance Group. The R+5 is the anaylsis of the data by the Tarrance Group. I will point out that Tarrance’s analysis to me had a much more jubilant tone than Lake’s. In addition, O+1 really overstates the poll. 1000 respondents 487 said Obama; 484 said Romney. 48.7 was rounded up to 49 and 48.4 was rounded down to 48. Yep, the difference is completely in rounding. This poll is “tied” and Tarrance believes that is a solid position for Romney to be in, especially as it shows him leading on the economy, with independents and more likeable than the President.

  • Rob Crawford says:

    I think acat is precisely correct — the press is maintaining the illusion of a horse race so they can either proclaim the election stolen or steal it.
    .
    Putting their thumbs on the scales of a few polls is nothing compared to sweeping Benghazi and Fast and Furious under the rug.

  • Patrick M says:

    Since turnout for Pres years is in the 70% range …

    “Among those most likely to vote – the combination of those saying they have already voted (15% of the Electorate) and those who say that they are extremely likely to vote (67% of the Electorate) – Romney has a five-point advantage (51%-46%).”

    … this is another way of saying “Hey, your LV model is wrong, and the real LV result is +5”

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