Nov
05
2012

First look: the Democrats’ disappointing (to them) Early Vote totals.

Last political post of the evening – I’m sure that you’re all sick of them, too – but this analysis of the WaPo pretty much sums it up:

Here’s the overarching takeaway: In basically every state where we have good data available, Democrats performed worse than they did in 2008 but better than they did in 2010. And if you extrapolate the shift to the entire statewide vote, we’ve got a very close race in store.

Major caveat: the states that we want to know most about – OH, NH, WI – do not have complete information.  OH EV is definitely down in key Democratic counties, compared to four years ago; WI, likewise.  NH… beats me, nobody’s paid too much attention to it.  But nowhere in the WaPo’s list are we seeing more Democrats voting than four years ago; and nowhere are we seeing less Republicans.  This is eating up the Democrats’ vote margins, which both sides agree are starkly necessary to offset the Republicans’ same-day voting advantage. And since Republican strategists are also expecting to do better on Election Day than we did four years ago, well…

2 Comments

  • Wombat-socho says:

    Oh, no, Please continue. I’m enjoying how miserable the Democrats must be feeling when they read these articles.

  • qsclues says:

    I wonder what the crossover is going to look like. Given the number of Democrats endorsing Romney, Democrats showing up does not necessarily equal votes for Obama. Personally, I think the crossover may spell the difference between a close election and a comfortable win in several states.

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