Nov
14
2012

Dan’s got a good post-mortem polling post up (say THAT three times real fast)…

over at RedState; specifically how he (and a bunch of others, explicitly including me*) got the results wrong.  Short version: ayup, the state polls were the true quill in this one.  It’s tempting to get into explanations and conjectures, but the truth of the matter is that I calculated it wrong.  In 2012 we had an Obama +6 electorate.

(pause)

Some people reading this are nastily smiling right now.  And some people reading this are suddenly smiling right now.  Spoiler warning: it’s the latter folks who should be.

Have a nice day!

Moe Lane

*For the record: this was the map in my head.  Which is a primary reason why I resisted declaring DOOM, thank God.  Well, that’s my lesson: when the heart is telling you not to invoke DOOM, listen.

2 Comments

  • jbird says:

    I’m still upset with Florida and Virginia and am not on speaking terms with any of my friends from those states no matter who they voted for. And Being a son of Virginia myself, this is a great and bitter sacrifice.

    In regard to your “Obama +6″ assertion, one of my few consolations from the election was the depth of the Republican bench for 2016 (Rubio, Jindal, Ryan, Pence, Walker, etc) compared to the Democratic one (Cuomo, O’Malley, and. . . .Biden. . . ha!). An annoyingly liberal friend of mine floated Corey Booker’s name which I found interesting. He could conceivably move into national politics if he can unseat Christie in 2013 or take over Lautenburg’s Senate seat in 2014. I know he got himself in some embarrassing situations this year, but I could see him as “Obama 2: Keeping the Coalition Together”. Frankly, I’d prefer him to Obama right now.

  • Spegen says:

    The bitter disappointment is knowing how bad the GOTV was in the important states that the expand the map was a waste and distraction

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