Feb
09
2013

House Democrats embrace their comfortable bubble of fantasy early.

Point:

Many Democrats have not been pleased with President Obama’s lack of involvement or interest in both them and their campaigns over the past few years, and have been getting increasingly restive about it — but certain House Dems left their three-day retreat yesterday apparently feeling enervated [sic] by the White House’s announced commitment to various fundraising events with the DCCC and the DSCC in 2013, and the promise of even more in 2014 as the midterms get closer, reports The Hill

Counter-point:

Solid Seats: 208 Rep, 166 Dem

Likely/Lean Seats: 25 Rep, 29 Dem

Toss Up or Worse: 1 Rep, 6 Dem

I do not have a subscription to Cook Political Report, and their archives are behind the paywall – but from what I remember of 2010 and 2012 these initial numbers are not particularly reflective of a situation where the Democrats will be gaining seats, let alone retake the House.  As for whether or not Obama’s personal presence will supposedly make a difference… well.  Governors Jon Corzine, Tom Barrett, Ted Strickland, & Creigh Deeds; and Senators Jim Martin, Alexi Giannoulias, Russ Feingold, Joe Sestak, & Robin Carnahan could not be reached for comment.

Moe Lane

PS: Seriously, folks: Mitt Romney won 52% of all Congressional Districts in 2012If Obama can keep minority turnout up at its 2008 and 2012 levels (based on 2010’s results, he can’t) then maybe this will help Democrats in statewide races.  But those same minority voters are largely in racially gerrymandered districts (which is a large reason why minority turnout will not be that high in 2014), which means that their impact on House races will be fairly minimal.  If Democrats don’t like that?  Then they should repeal Section V of the Voting Rights Act.  God knows that the Republican party has no intention of doing so.

1 Comment

  • Catseyes says:

    Barack O’bama will leave office as the most reviled President since Hoover!- My Prediction here and now.
    He’s already at 46% approval and it’s only going to get worse, they may like him personally but after a while constant failure tends to grate in ways that are not ameliorable to spin no matter how much spin you do.

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