Mar
26
2013

Predicting what the Supreme Court will do is a mug’s game.

So let me be a mug: at a guess, they’re going to punt on Calfornia’s Prop 8 question via a technicality and shave as narrow a position as they can on DoMA.  The Supreme Court is getting a little institutionally tired of being the heavy for every time Congress or a state passes a problematical law: see their responses to Obamacare and McCain-Feingold for examples of what they can do to provide negative feedback.

I am almost certainly wrong.

Moe Lane

PS: I think that many commenters and commentators have a bad habit of over-emphasizing Chief Justice Roberts’ Obamacare opinion when forecasting future Supreme Court decisions.  Although, to be fair, disappointment can often color analysis.

3 Comments

  • Aruges says:

    I predict that whatever the result, the deciding vote will be written in a convoluted and obtuse manner following a bizarre line of reasoning that will leave anyone feeling stupider for having read it.

  • acat says:

    This cat is betting on a decision that pisses everyone off, but that has the backing of a majority of the country.. by some obtuse definition of “majority”.
    .
    Mew

  • Wubbies says:

    I get the impression they really do not want to touch this with multiple 10 foot polls. The question is if they choose to knock it out of the park and kill it as an issue once and for all or will they punt with the “standing” issue and invalidate the 9th circus ruling. Who knows? I have no clue on what they will do and any guess on my part equates to a blind folded dart throw.

    All the babbling talking heads on TV are just as clueless but are trying to earn their paycheck by taking space on the air waves.

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