This is the most important point to note from PPP’s gulping report of a double-digit collapse of Elizabeth Colbert Busch’s chances in SC-01 (Mark Sanford went from -9 to +1 over Busch in two weeks, and the more Republican the likely voter electorate gets in the next two days, the better it looks for Sanford):
If SC-1 voters went to the polls on Tuesday and voted for the candidate they personally liked better, Colbert Busch would be the definite winner. That’s why Sanford’s campaign has tried to shift the focus toward national Democrats who are unpopular in the district, and that’s been a key in helping him to make this race competitive again. Nancy Pelosi has a 24/61 approval rating in SC-1 and although voters don’t like Sanford, they do like him better than Pelosi by a 53/37 margin. President Obama doesn’t fare a whole lot better in the district. His approval is 39/54, and voters say they have a higher opinion of Sanford than him by a 48/44 spread.
Whether or not Colbert Busch wins on Tuesday or not (I’m thinking, ‘not*’) this is a highly relevant point for 2014 Democratic hopefuls everywhere: the House Minority Leader is currently demonstrating why most ex-Speakers have the good sense to retire after they lose the Speakership, or even take a beating in the caucus. You think that Steny Hoyer would be producing this kind of profitable concern in SC-01? …No, neither do I. If I was in the Democratic party leadership I would be explaining to Nancy Pelosi right now why she’d need to retire. Then again, if I was in the Democratic party leadership I would have stopped my colleagues from stampeding their way into an Obama candidacy in 2008…
Moe Lane
*PPP does have a fairly poor track record on special elections – which is an unfair way to put it; no firms really have a good track record on special elections.
Then again, if I was in the Democratic party leadership I would have stopped my colleagues from stampeding their way into an Obama candidacy in 2008 …
No you wouldn’t, Moe, because if you were in the Democratic party leadership you’d have to have had a radically different set of values to get there in the first place. (And possibly been a sociopath as well.)
When PPP released the original poll, I was like C’MON MAN! Do you really think a quasi-communist like Colbert-Busch was getting elected in SC 1? Really, Really. It’s like the liberals who thought Ashley Judd would be the one to take out Mitch McConnell – it’s a total rejection of reality. Once the voters started paying attention, they ran from Colbert-Busch like she was 3 Mile Island. Got to agree, given a choice between Colbert-Busch & Mark Sanford, I’d cry, postulate on the end of American democracy, puke & vote for Sanford.
Got to agree, given a choice between Colbert-Busch & Mark Sanford, I’d cry, postulate on the end of American democracy, puke & vote for Sanford.
Yeah, but thank goodness I don’t have to make that choice. My main concentration is going to be to support whomever runs against Lindsey Graham in the 2014 primary election. So far, Richard Cash from the third district and State Senator Lee Bright from Spartanburg have indicated they will throw their hats into the ring.