And it’s a pretty straightforward insight: to wit, Nobody ever believes that what happened to the other guys last cycle can just as quickly happen to you this one.
Seriously, objectively speaking the Democrats are in a hell of a jam right now: the country hates Congress (including the Democratic members of it); the country is starting to seriously hate the President, too; and the post-2014 gubernatorial Democratic lineup is looking to be both weak, and sparse. Traditional groups in their caucus are threatening to split off, the most reliable parts of their caucus are losing intensity… and their supposed frontrunner for 2016 is the candidate who is next in line. Shoot, said candidate even lost a particularly hard-feelings primary battle in 2008 that had multiple allegations of poor sportsmanship and dirty tricks. And is going to be old.
Does this sound familiar? It should; those were the conditions that the GOP were operating under in 2005. As I recall, it didn’t go well for us. But it’ll be different this time! – cry the Democrats.
PS: I know that somebody is saying to the computer screen right now The GOP will screw this all up! …Folks, I say this with all respect and kindness: that attitude can come perilously close to one where you assume that you’re always going to lose so that you never have to think about what you’ll have to do if you win.