Interesting analysis here from Sean Trende, especially at the end:
If the president’s job approval is still around 43 percent in November — lower than it was on Election Day in 2010 — the question would probably not be whether the Democrats will hold the Senate, but whether Republicans can win 54 or 55 seats. Given the numbers right now, that should not be unthinkable.
But there’s a flip side to this. If Obama’s job approval does bounce back — which is exactly what happened in 2012 — there’s a reasonable chance that Republicans could walk away from this cycle with just a handful of pickups.
Agreed, but the key word here is very much ‘if.’ If you look at RCP’s numbers you’ll see that – Rasmussen solely aside – the President’s numbers are… showing no sign of a rebound any time soon. At this point, there’s very little that could fuel higher numbers. Between Obamacare, the NSA, the stubbornly grim economy, and five years’ worth of karmic backlash for Barack Obama’s cavalier treatment of the opposition… I don’t want to say that only a war could rescue Obama’s polling numbers, but only because I’m not entirely certain that it would.
We will now pause for the traditional rant in comments that the GOP will somehow manage to throw all of this away. Sorry: I’m cranky from the combination cold/snow day.