This is a complex kind of situation, actually:
The Democratic Party’s advantage in the states was halved last year, continuing a dramatic multi-year decline.
In 2008, Democrats had a 30-state advantage in party affiliation over Republicans, according to state-level Gallup surveys. Last year, that advantage among states fell to just three.
With 36 governorships and 36 Senate seats on the line in this year’s midterm elections and Democrats trying to protect Senate seats in the solid-red states of South Dakota, Montana and Alaska, Republicans have reason for optimism.
If you look at the map you’ll see that this doesn’t mean, particularly, that the Democrats are in severe trouble in their core 2016 areas:
— Reid Wilson (@PostReid) January 29, 2014
…but it does mean that in 2014 the Democrats are going to have a bit of a problem in taking back a lot of the governorships and state legislatures that we took away from them in 2010. Which means that they’re going to have a bit of a problem in 2020: much like the problem that we had in 2008 (not enough good Presidential candidates). And so the Wheel turns, turns, turns…