I so totally knew that they would use this argument.
Democrats aren’t taking Nate Silver’s latest Senate prediction lying down.
In an unusual step, the executive director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee on Monday issued a rebuttal the famed statistician’s prediction – made a day earlier – that Republicans were a “slight favorite” to retake the Senate. Silver was wrong in 2012, the political committee’s Guy Cecil wrote in a memo, and he’ll be wrong again in 2014.
“In fact, in August of 2012 Silver forecasted a 61 percent likelihood that Republicans would pick up enough seats to claim the majority,” Cecil said. “Three months later Democrats went on to win 55 seats.”
No, really, I pointed this general situation out yesterday. And I most certainly will claim points for prescience, here. Although it’s not the most difficult prediction I’ve ever made: the DSCC is almost as predictable as the DCCC, these days. Six years’ worth of having OFA batten on their resources and staff has left its mark.
PS: Oh, man, I hadn’t realized that the DSCC was actively building Nate Silver up as a guru:
For the last few months, FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief Nate Silver has been largely absent from the political forecasting scene he owned in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections.
But that hasn’t stopped the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee from sending at least 11 fundraising emails featuring Silver in the subject line over the past four months, even as Silver was building the foundation for his new website that’s launching Monday and was not writing regularly.
It’s all part of a digital fundraising game that will increase in intensity as the election draws nearer, as candidates, political parties, and other groups bombard their email lists with messages designed to draw contributions.
Via Jim Geraghty’s Morning Jolt. That explains the sudden panic: the DSCC can fundraise off of many a prediction of We may lose the Senate! One of We’re going to lose the Senate!… not so much.