Jun
11
2014

The NRCC lines itself up behind Dave Brat.

No doubt much to the disappointment of people looking and hoping for a bloody internal fight over the district, the NRCC is playing  it straight:

“Eric Cantor has been a steadfast leader for our party, and a great friend and mentor for so many House Republicans. I know Eric will continue to lead on the issues he cares so deeply about. Virginia families have selected Republican David Brat to represent them in Congress. I congratulate him on his victory and look forward to working with him in Congress.” – NRCC Chairman Greg Walden

Moving forward: it’s a R+10 district, and it’s unlikely to flip.  Cook Political Report: “Virginia’s 7th CD is very heavily Republican: GOP presidential nominee won it 57 percent to 42 percent in 2012. So even Brat, who attacked Cantor from the right on immigration and debt ceiling politics, doesn’t change our Solid Republican rating here.” I note this because I want to make sure that people understand that if the fundamentals of the race don’t change – i.e., that there’s no significant chance that the seat will flip – then the national organizations will actually have no reason to put in increased resources for the race.  As it stands right now the Democratic party is not showing any signs of seriously contesting the seat: their hastily-chosen candidate has no money, no staff – and no promises of meaningful support. If that changes, the NRCC will no doubt reassess; but as it stands now Dave Brat is in a good enough position without further investment.

Simple as that.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

8 Comments

  • BigGator5 says:

    Virginia is an open primary state (which I find loathsome to begin with) and many Democrats are saying that they voted for Brat and help him win…
    .
    …For what end? Did they think Cantor would be a sore loser and become a spoiler? Did they not understand that Brat is anti-immigration reform, where Cantor is at least open to piecemeal reform? I don’t get it.

    • Moe_Lane says:

      I get the impression that they expected a write-in, actually. I also can’t help but note that if this was their plan, they should have gotten a real candidate first.

      • acat says:

        Projection, perhaps? “If someone took away our candidate, we’d do a write-in and lawsuits and …” (hint: look at the antics in Michigan’s 13th district)
        .
        Mew

    • Lady Penguin says:

      I live in a nearby Congressional District. While I absolutely agree with you about the stupidity of open primaries, it sure wasn’t 11,000 Democrat votes that delivered the victory to David Brat. David Brat won that race, Cantor didn’t just “lose” it.

      Eric Cantor faced a primary opponent in 2012, he has been losing popularity in VA07 for some time. Maybe it was being tied to Johnny Boehner’s coattails, maybe it was him living and loving the political power of DC, or maybe it was his power grab (using his political machine, the “young guns”, to take out the grassroots in other congressional districts, or maybe it was him being an example of DC arrogance. I’m with all of the above.

      • BigGator5 says:

        “…it sure wasn’t 11,000 Democrat votes that delivered the victory to David Brat. David Brat won that race, Cantor didn’t just “lose” it.”
        .
        Oh I agree. I should have mention that I don’t think Dems pushed Brat over the edge at all. Looking at the numbers they may have given him one, or two, percentage points, but not the win. My only point was that Cantor should have been their guy and not the other way around. Democrat’s logic here completely escapes me.

    • 1_rick says:

      “many Democrats are saying that they voted for Brat ”

      Doesn’t mesh with the fact that Cantor got 25% or whatever fewer votes than in 2012.

      This is almost certainly a sort of Mobying–an attempt to paint Brat as a liberal to suppress the Republican vote in the general.

  • DemosthenesVW says:

    Does anyone have a source either confirming with proof, or denying with proof, Larry Sabato’s recent statements that Brat reached out to Democrats to help him beat Cantor? If so, please share. If a Republican candidate was soliciting Democratic support to defeat another Republican candidate, that seems like a bridge too far.

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