Sean Trende consults the entrails…
We’ll either see a heavy, last-minute break for Republicans, resulting in a wave, as undecided voters decide to cast their votes as a referendum on the president, or these voters will opt to stay home, the electorate will be made more heavily Democratic, and the Republicans will be left somewhat disappointed.
…and oh, the implications of ‘somewhat disappointed.’ ‘Somewhat disappointed,’ in this context, is us not netting more than six or seven seats in the Senate. Which is to say: we flip the Senate, and remove four Democratic incumbents (Begich, Landrieu, Pryor, & Udall would be the short list, here) from office. And that will put the kibosh on that stupid talking point Republicans can’t beat incumbent Democrats once, and for all*.
I’ll take that. And, of course, flipping the Senate/throwing all those suddenly-surplus Democratic staffers out on the streets.
Moe Lane
*A factoid that has been help immeasurably by the fact that Democrats have been good about ‘convincing’ their Dead Men Walking to retire. Unfortunately, the problem with telling your people that you’re bulletproof is that there’s a nontrivial chance that your people might start believing you. This can be awkward when they base their defensive strategy on what was essentially a magic spell…
