The more you think about this story, the weirder it gets.
Democrats are beginning to worry that Hillary Clinton is creating a drought in Iowa.
A year out from the Iowa caucus, some party members fret that Hillary Clinton’s dominance in the Democratic field will leave the party high and dry as the campaign season intensifies. A lack of competition within the party may hurt fundraising and makes it hard to develop the new blood that often grows out of highly competitive races, some party activists say.
…I mean, it sounds plausible – until you think about the 2012 election. During that election season Barack Obama was, of course, effectively unopposed in the Iowa Democratic caucus. That’s perfectly natural: Barack Obama was an incumbent President. It’d have been odd if he had been vigorously opposed. And that uncontested primary did not have any particular ill effect on down-ticket Iowan Democrats that year. In fact, the Iowa Democratic party gained seven seats in the state House of Representatives in 2012*. Sure, technically the Democrats lost an Iowa seat in Congress… but that was just the usual outsourcing to Texas.
No, this isn’t really about there being a ‘lack of competition:’ this is about how awful a drag Hillary Clinton , specifically, will be on the Democratic party of Iowa this cycle. I think that it’s very likely that Hillary Clinton would – if she runs – utterly ignore Iowa, period: she doesn’t really need to compete in the caucus, apparently, and her campaign probably has written off the state in the general election already. So why waste (as she would see, but not say, it) time there?
It’s stuff like this that makes me cheerful about 2016. From the Democrats’ point of view this is going to be nothing but defense, defense, defense. Such affairs are often bloody, to be sure; but if the attacker is sufficiently motivated then the result is often inevitable. And, make no mistake: there is many a Republican base voter and activist who will drag themselves to the polls purely for the pleasure of voting against Hillary Clinton in a general election. Holding a grudge for twenty years can do that to a person.
Via @baseballcrank.
Moe Lane
*And then promptly lost four in 2014, but that’s a different story.
A lot can happen in a year. Maybe the horse will learn to sing …or decide not to run.
If you’re going with horse metaphors, shouldn’t somebody put that crippled old nag (Hillary’s presidential aspirations) down?
i would pay to see her face if she’s forced to not run due to video of Bill doing some 16-year-old. like the commercial says, “priceless”. plus the free-for-all in the party if she quits or strokes out publicly or something.
No, no, no.
.
If she strokes out in public, the Dems get sympathy.
.
Better that she just decides to take Chelsea, and Bill’s money, and go live a simple, quiet life…
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Mew
Chelsea’s in her mid-30s and married now. I hear that she and her husband, Marc Mezvinsky, have taken a vow of poverty.
“her campaign probably has written off the state in the general election already.”
If so, 2016’s all over except for the shouting. Hilary’s “claim to fame” was the ability to get white working class votes. If she can’t get Iowa, it’s because she can’t get those votes.
And a Dem Presidential candidate who can’t get enough WWC votes in IA to win, is going to lose WI, PA, and OH, too.