There is a flaw in this argument:
“It’s certainly possible that if Democrats—there’s 435 seats up every two years; Democrats win a majority— [Nancy Pelosi] would become the Speaker of the House, but it’s terribly unlikely, although possible,” [KCBS Political Analyst Marc] Sandalow said.
That’s because of the way the districts are redrawn, which happens every 10 years, based on the U.S. Census.
…and it’s a pretty large one: the districts are redrawn not because there’s a rule in the Constitution that says that you have to redraw districts ever ten years. The districts are redrawn because, thanks to the Census, some states will gain seats, and some states will lose them. And it’s not exactly random, either. The GOP picked up, what, half a dozen House seats in reliably Republican states? – And the way things are going, it’s likely that the Northeast will continue to bleed House seats at a steady rate for a while longer.
The real interesting thing, by the way, is what California itself does. The 2010 Census was the first time in a long while where the state didn’t pick up another House seat. If the 2020 takes one away… or, hey, two or three…
PS: But, yeah, Nancy Pelosi isn’t going to be Speaker of the House again.