Look at Hot Air‘s front page right now and you’ll see the Democrats’ problem, in a nutshell.
To wit: Hillary Clinton has to run as if she was the second iteration of Barack Obama; and yet, the economy under Barack Obama, well, sucks. Honestly, I don’t know whether Barack Obama could win a third term at this point: his support actually decreased in 2012 (just not quite enough, alas), and most of the potential GOP field got their start via their opposition to his policies. Hillary Clinton’s ability to even match Barack Obama’s performance in key demographics is, shall we say, undetermined.
Usually at this point somebody starts talking about how Hillary Clinton will get the woman vote, how black turnout will stay up there if Barack Obama goes all-in, how rocks fall and everybody dies; the usual, in other words. Which would all be more useful if any of this was ever based on much more than gut feelings. The truth is, there are a lot of confident people out there when it comes to this election – but very few of them can show their work.
Present company not excluded, of course. I’m as capable of a wild guess as anybody else. More capable, possibly. But at least I know when I’m out on a limb. There are a lot of political operatives out there who seem constitutionally incapable of that particular piece of self-realization.