You don’t have to be a Democrat to wonder about this: “[Joe] Biden placed a personal call to Harold Schaitberger, president of the International Association of Firefighters, early Friday morning to discuss his potential candidacy and a strategy to win, Schaitberger said.” Look, it’s mid-October. There are a bunch of things that candidates to have to do in order to get into the various state primaries. Those primary deadlines are tick-tocking away. If Joe Biden doesn’t make up his mind, then his mind will be made up for him.
…At least, that’s the conventional reasoning. Basically, everyone is assuming that Joe Biden is ambivalent about running for President. But what if he’s just scared?
We know that the man wants the job: Joe Biden has run several times for it, the last time in 2008. Besides, it’s a rare politician who can look at him- or herself in a mirror and not see a potential President looking back, and Biden is utterly conventional in that regard. On paper he’s a formidable opponent; and even in reality Biden would make more thematic sense to Democratic primary voters than Hillary Clinton would. And, speaking pragmatically: what’s the obvious downside to Joe Biden seeking the nomination, and losing? What’s Hillary Clinton going to do, hold a grudge for the rest of either’s politician’s life? – Because, let’s be honest here: that threat is a lot more significant when both parties are in their forties or fifties than it would when both are in their late sixties.
But Joe Biden still won’t take the plunge; and I think that it’s because he doesn’t want to take the rap for the Democrats losing the election. Because there is a downside to Joe Biden announcing a run. If he jumps in and Hillary wins the nomination anyway, Joe Biden will get blamed for weakening The First Woman President just enough to give the Republican candidate the victory in the general election. If he jumps in and gets the nomination, he’ll be blamed for shoving aside The First Woman President in order to aggrandize himself (and lose the election). But if he ultimately doesn’t jump in… well. The narrative will become If only Joe Biden had been running as Barack Obama’s third term! Surely we would have won with Old Joe there, ya, you betcha. Which is not exactly a bad reputation for a Democratic elder statesman to have.
Bear in mind: I still think that Joe Biden will eventually jump into the ring, if only because he really is hungry for the job. But the man clearly understands on at least some level that he’s going not going to be the next President of the United States; and that’s causing Biden to hesitate. Which would be a pity, except that we’ll have fun either way. Man… it was good thing that Joe Biden didn’t run as Barack Obama’s third term! Surely we would have lost with Old Joe there, ya, you betcha…
Moe Lane (crosspost)
“Look, it’s mid-October. There are a bunch of things that candidates to have to do in order to get into the various state primaries. Those primary deadlines are tick-tocking away. If Joe Biden doesn’t make up his mind, then his mind will be made up for him.”
Baloney. The rules will be hemmed and hawed to let Joe jump in with full delegate support in August 2016 after the convention if it needs to be done. Because Leona Helmsley was a Democrat spokesperson.
There’s an anemic thriller in Joe working out a way to revenge himself on Hillary, after she killed his son to put him in his place.
As soon as he declares, he has to start paying for AF2 use (43K/hr) or find another ride.
he’s waiting for Cankles to fall flat on her face or stroke out or get indicted, so he can be the hero who saves the Dems from Her Vileness. all of which are quite possible, even likely.
A repub-leaning teacher aquaintance recently expressed this theory – the best candidate, Biden, isn’t running because Hillary hasn’t been indicted yet.
.
Mew
You know … maybe, just maybe, your party’s got a problem when your “best candidate” is Joe Biden.
Right now, both parties have problems ..
.
The GOP’s are solvable in the short-term, the Dems .. how *do* you solve Plugs Biden?
.
Mew
I’m cynical enough to propose a different hypothesis: Biden knows that Hillary has embraced the Jack Ryan Lesson … named not for Tom Clancy’s hero, but for Seven of Nine’s husband. Dig up dirt on your opponent, and destroy him.
Note that Hillary doesn’t necessarily need to have any dirt on Joe Biden, although she probably does. But she almost certainly has information about Our President that Barack Obama wouldn’t want released; if Obama were to endorse Hillary because of that, then it would cripple Joe’s candidacy.
Quibble – as our fearless host has pointed out, Obama isn’t exactly noted as a great success in getting Other People elected ..
.
Mew