A lot of the discussion about the meaning of this Tweet will be about Trump – as Hot Air notes, it’s mixed news as best – but the real issue here is that there is a remarkable enthusiasm gap in Iowa when you compare 2008 to 2016:
This is what the figures look like corrected AND with new data. It's a completely different story. pic.twitter.com/sbYDUchlo3
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) January 28, 2016
There was no Democratic caucus in Iowa in 2012, so we have to look to 2008. The real story here is that the GOP in Iowa is engaged, and that the Democrats are not. How does this translate to specific candidates, on the Republican side? Nobody knows. People who tell you – as in, with unshakable certainty – that they know are either lying, or delusional. Well. In my opinion, at least.
…Still, I can say with a certain degree of confidence that in general these numbers translate as ‘bad news’ to all of the Democratic candidates in Iowa. And Iowa is not the only state threatening to flip to the GOP in the general election this cycle. Not hardly.