And then comes the fascinating instant evolution (work with me, here) of Iowa from being the epicenter of the American political universe to a Midwestern state with a population of 3.1 million. I’ve seen it happen with political eyes for… I guess 2016 will be my fourth time… and it’s always amazing how quickly everything shifts. I’ve seen slower state changes from emergency cutoff switches.
As to the results? Well, I’m still mulling over my What To Look For On Caucus Night post. Or even to do one; I mean, everybody else will, and everybody else will be probably guessing, too. Besides, you all already know what to look for.
Actually, my handle of ‘the most ignorant’ is appropriate here. I’m confused, am not sure if it is tomorrow or the next day, but I am now thinking tomorrow.
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Can I find quick results somewhere on the internet? Where?
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Now, some of my confusion is that I’m sick and somewhat incoherent.
I loathe Iowa.
I’ve yet to vote in a primary that hasn’t already been decided. But those jackholes think they’ve got a right to have the first say on Presidential candidates every single time? Screw them.
And that’s before considering what the ethanol boondoggle does to the price of feed, food, and gas. Kill that fricking thing with fire. Or better yet, nuke it from orbit.
Sing it, brother.
On the other hand, I’m not sure I want my fellow Californians having much to do with determining the GOP nominee either (and my campaign to break San Diego County off into its own state sadly isn’t going anywhere …).
What Goodhart’s Law giveth, Goodhart’s Law taketh away.
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Unpacking a bit more, Goodhart’s Law says “When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure” ..
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Unpacking a *lot* more .. Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina were all “good measures” *because* they were relatively minor States; each one represents a U.S. cultural region** – Midlands, Yankeedom, and Deep South, respectively.
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The results of these three tell the power brokers in New York and L.A. (or, New Netherlands and the Left Coast) just which candidate they can push on people.
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So long as these three were producing useful results, they were allowed to lead. Once they stop .. the rules *will* change .. and another way will be found to measure the various regions.
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As their results are increasingly not useful, I look for Iowa’s influence to wane sharply even if they retain first-in-nation status.
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This could be achieved, quite simply, by scheduling the California primary the day after .. although that wouldn’t provide the same data so I wouldn’t hold my breath.
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Mew
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** http://www.businessinsider.com/the-11-nations-of-the-united-states-2015-7
My dumb primary schedule proposal reform is three simple rules.
1) No more than 10% of delegates chosen by primaries and/or caucuses are awarded on any one day, unless that happens with just one state (which it might with California or Texas, depending on the GOP’s delegate-allocation rules).
2) There must be at least nine days between primary/caucus days.
3) States/territories that hold primaries on the same day must be adjacent, excepting those that are not contiguous with the lower 48.
I don’t think Iowa and NH are really the problem (as much as detest ethanol politics). I think 20-odd states all over the country on Super Tuesday just a month after that is the problem. I know the pros don’t like an extended meaningful primary season, but you could still start the first week in Feb and be done by the first week in May following my rules and letting Iowa & NH have their own days. For example …
Iowa – Feb 6 (Sat; I mostly think caucuses should be on Saturdays)
NH – Feb 16 (Tue)
Next ~10% of delegates – Feb 27 (Sat) or March 1 (Tue)
Next ~10% of delegates- March 12 (Sat) or March 15 (Tue)
Next ~10% of delegates- March 26 (Sat) or March 29 (Tue)
Texas – Apr 9 (Sat) or Apr 12 (Tue)
Remaining non-CA states/territories/DC – Apr 19 (Tue) or Apr 23 (Sat)
California – May 3 (Tue) or May 7 (Sat)
You might need another primary day or two to follow the adjacent states rule, but the CA primary is currently in June anyway …