Feb
22
2016

One note about people dropping out before Super Tuesday…

…they will not.

:pause:

Well, maybe Ben Carson will: I saw the vaguest of suggestions that he’s going to take a good, hard look at his numbers after tomorrow’s Nevada caucuses. But it’s safe to bet that John Kasich will stay in at least until next week*; and obviously Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and Donald Trump are going to long-haul it.

Moe Lane

*He wants to stay longer. The GOP ‘Establishment**’ has other ideas.  The RNC could certainly help it along by getting those debate spots down to three.

**I assume that Politico is actually using a definition of ‘Establishment’ that doesn’t include me for a change, although I certainly think that it’s far past time for John Kasich to go back to Ohio and start planning a Senate run.

6 Comments

  • jaytrain says:

    Carson staying around I can put off on delusion and/or naiveté . Kasich I put off on egomania of the very worst sort . His arrogance puts more likely , much more likely , the Trump nomination . And the end of the R Party as a national force , about which I care less and less each day . And the end of the Republic about which I still care very much . Kasich is a bum .

    • acat says:

      Kasich dropping out won’t happen until after the SEC primary.
      .
      It’s not even hard to see why .. if Rubio gaffes badly and gets his head handed to him, his backers need *someplace* to run to .. other than Cruz.
      .
      Mew

  • Aruges says:

    Sadly, it looks like we’d need every one but Rubio or Cruz to bail RIGHT NOW to avoid Trump. Not likely. Sickening. I had thought Rubio and Cruz would be smart enough to change focus, but no. They have to just tear into each other like chumps. This is why Senators are bad candidates, particularly first term Senators. Sadly our Governors decided to either run no hope campaigns or hire idiots to manage them and waste hundreds of millions of dollars. No one picked up on the obvious mood of the party voters, so in came Trump. I wish I could sue for political malpractice, but all that money wouldn’t buy my country back.

    • Aruges says:

      That’s an exclusive OR in the first line. It’s one or the other at this point, and it’s too late to let the people decide which one.

    • Skip says:

      We don’t even know if that’s enough, because if someone’s asked the right question in a poll, I sure haven’t seen it. The right question is to first ask someone who their preference is in a three-way race with Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and then a follow-up question asking who their second choice is among those three.
      .
      In particular, I think the GOPe part of Rubio’s support that he’d inherit would probably go to Trump rather than the conservative Cruz which they despise, which means probably half of his current total. And I know that there’s a part of Cruz’s support to whom Rubio is dead to them, as I’m part of it. Given the very unappetizing choice between someone you know is going to stab you in the back, because he has a history of it, and someone who very well might, but has not done so yet, you choose the 80%-likely backstabber versus the 100% one. How big is that contingent? I suspect it’s bigger than you think.

      • acat says:

        The Cruz campaign has stayed on religion longer than necessary – should have shifted to hammering on issues right after Iowa.
        .
        He and Rubio should also be peppering their speeches with bumper-sticker simple phrases about what their presidencies will be like for Joey Sixpack. “A chicken in every pot” doesn’t require voters to think about how a complex issue like TPP affects ’em, eh?
        .
        At this point, I don’t think Rubio or Cruz can stop attacking one another .. I would love to be proven wrong, but .. it seems like both campaigns (possibly not both men.. not sure) would prefer to lose to Trump *as long as the other guy loses too*.
        .
        I would, again, very much like to be wrong about this.
        .
        Mew

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