Mar
03
2016

My RedState post on Saturday’s closed primaries.

I’m linking to this today instead of tomorrow because it’s actually pretty important. Well, maybe not the actual post; but the concept behind it. Very quickly: all four states having primaries and/or caucuses on Saturday are closed ones (only Republicans can vote); and three of the four will not allow independents to vote in the primary/caucus, either. Of those four, Louisiana still looks good for Trump in the polling. Kansas superficially looks good for him, but actually promises a galloping disaster for Trump (26% in a four man pre-debate poll that includes Kasich is bad news, especially since Trump doesn’t get last minute voters). Kentucky hasn’t been polled since before the last debate-but-one; Maine hasn’t been polled this year. In other words: keep watching the skies, because these races may go get funky.

13 Comments

  • Mikey NTH says:

    I have no particular skills as a seer, so I remain a mere observer.

    I don’t vote until Tuesday anyway, so the race may still be a real thing at that point. Or not.

    • Moe_Lane says:

      After this debate? Trump was babbling about the size of his hands, the size of his penis, and how he’ll convince troops to shoot innocent children by sheer force of will. He had a badddddd night.

      • Mikey NTH says:

        I’ll take your word for it because I didn’t watch it.

        *shrugs*

        Again – I don’t know. I’ve never been good at the future stuff. I was a Walker supporter first off and let’s see how far that got me.

        • acat says:

          Throne of Skulls!
          .
          Okay, yeah, Walker got *really* bad advice.
          .
          That aside, I’m wondering just how long the Trump campaign is going to stumble along after the debate .. yes, it was *literally* that bad.
          .
          Trump supporters, though, seem .. pretty impervious to legitimate criticism of their candidate – their egoes are downright Chobham-armored up..
          .
          Mew

          • Mikey NTH says:

            My thing at AoSHQ as proprietor of The Outrage Outlet lets me make a lot of jokes. Aside from the jokes I have been trying to suss out the Trump thing. I was Walker, drifted as I was entertained by Trump, but I’m pretty much Cruz as Michigan slides into it’s primary. I got the immigration thing, which is part of the soft economy not only getting low skilled blue-and-pink collar laborers but threatening skilled blue collar and lower white collar workers. I got the Muslim thing – Donald Trump knows when a market wave is building and is ready to surf that crest as far as it will go.

            The man is not stupid.

            And neither are his supporters. They perceive that they have been asked to sacrifice. They perceive that they are told to hold their tongues when slanders are sent their way. To stand aside when someone else is carried across the finish line. To bend down.

            Donald Trump is not stupid because he saw that pink collar, low-skilled and skilled blue collar, and lower white collar group out there and he pitched to them. The fools are the Democrats who tossed those demographics while concentrating on the other race-ethnicity-genitalia demographics. And the fools are the Republicans that didn’t see the gift that could break the Democrats race-ethnicity-genitalia coalition apart.

            Something I wrote a long time ago:

            “It would be nice to have a national politician that was more concerned about the well-being of American citizens than the welfare of foreigners.”

            Here ends my expostulation.

  • nicklevi86 says:

    As your RS colleague pointed out, Maine Gov. LePage just went full Birther. I was holding out hope even after he complained about drug dealers “coming up here and knocking up White girls.”
    .
    Unfortunately, there are only two stripes of Republican up in Maine(alongside a large plurality of Independents): Susan Collins and PaulBot. The PaulBots are still PO’d for getting thrown out of the 2012 convention. I predict a Trump doing well here.

    • nicklevi86 says:

      To finish my first thought: “Unfortunately his tell-it-like-it-is-ness seems to not be un-pollished passion, but Trumpian bluster all along. Can’t blame the media if you’re a [redacted due to content rules].”

  • acat says:

    You gonna spin some George Clinton / Parliament Funkadelic when the race gets down?
    .
    Mew

  • Catseyes says:

    So, anybody else get the impression that Trump might be over compensating a bit with his YUGGE shtick. Sorry couldn’t resist.

  • Dan says:

    Why in the world do the Republicans have “open” debates at all? Seems like just asking for a BOHICA situation.

    • Dan says:

      Yeah, don’t proof it, Dan.

      Why in the world do the Republicans have “open” PRIMARIES at all?

      Sheesh.

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