Mar
11
2019

In which I underestimated a MCU movie’s opening weekend. Again.

I said $100-120 million domestic for Captain Marvel: it grossed $154 million domestic, and if it doesn’t beat my $600-800 million total prediction at this point I’d be shocked. That would require, say, everybody who wanted to go see the movie already seeing it last weekend, and that’s even more absurd than apparently my previous guess was. Certainly it’s no longer safe to bet that the movie won’t hit a billion.

On the other hand? This is pretty much what happened with me with Infinity War: I was thinking $220 million, it made $258 million. So, basically, I think that what you need to do is add somewhere around $35 million to my opening upper estimates for MCU movies and then you’ll have a rough idea of what the real number’s going to be.

Moe Lane

PS: I dunno. It’s funnier when I keep guessing the numbers wrong, right?

11 Comments

  • 1_rick says:

    What’s interesting is that–now that it’s out–people are speculating that the whole SJW thing was a front to try to pull more people in. One review I read mentioned a specific complaint about (trying to not be spoily) Brie Larson’s acting had an in-movie reason.

    There were similar rumblings about Lady Ghostbusters after that movie came out, too. Very annoying, if the studios are now trying to play their audiences to get more butts in seats.

    • acat says:

      Ummmmm…
      .
      I mean …
      .
      That’s kind of what studios *do*, right? They tell stories ..
      .
      I mean, they’ve been telling us stories about the stories they tell in theaters for a long time now, right?
      .
      Mew
      .
      .
      .
      .
      p.s. I think, if they borrowed the idea from anyone, it was the whole “the force is female” nonsense from the ‘Solo’ production.. which, rather than being marketing faking activism, appears to have been actual activism.

      • Luke says:

        It was evidently more effective at getting people in the doors than:
        It was fine.
        The second half really does get much better.
        There are some good scenes at the end.
        The cat was the best character.

        • acat says:

          The cat is always** the best character.
          .
          Mew
          .
          .
          ** provided the cat is played by an actual cat, not a CGI or animatronic monstrosity.

    • nicklevi86 says:

      Movies always try to play their audience to put butts in seats. The issue has been doing so without insulting half of said audience.

  • JustDave says:

    I wonder how many people went just because 1) MCU, and 2) hoping for a post-credits hint at what Avengers: Endgame is gonna be.

    .

    On the other hand, my ignorance of the nature of the movie-going public is vast and comprehensive.

    • acat says:

      If there’s a sharp drop in second-weekend numbers, then .. that’s as good a guess as any.
      .
      My guess is Marvel saw how well “Wonder Woman” did, and are trying to figure out how to sell twice as many tickets by appealing to the girlfriends and nieces of non-basement-dwelling Marvel fans ..
      .
      Mew

  • junior says:

    Had a friend who got a group of people together to go see it (he does this for all of the MCU movies; I couldn’t go because I had another commitment that night). He told me that –

    1.) He enjoyed the movie
    2.) Brie Larson didn’t emote much, but this didn’t bother him because he thought it was appropriate to the situation that she was in.
    3.) The lack of emoting apparently *did* bother at least some of the women in the group because he mentioned that there were comments from the women about Ms. Larson needing to smile more. He also noted that the comments were a bit hypocritical, as he likely would have been dressed down if he’d given the same advice to any of the women who were complaining…

  • Luke says:

    Don’t try to understand women.
    Women understand other women, and they frelling hate each other.
    Don’t go mad from the revelation.
    .
    .
    (Being possessed of a wife and daughters, I have stammered out a horrified “who thinks like that?” considerably more often than I’m comfortable with.)

    • Rockphed says:

      My wife hates women. Like with the fiery passion of a thousand pointy evils hates women.

    • ChrisValentine says:

      That is a frighteningly good point. If I had a dollar for every time my wife complained about some petty workplace drama that isn’t even drama – like email phrasing pettiness – I’d have… well, enough to take her out for a nice dinner.

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