Sep
01
2014
0

Will the African-American vote save troubled Democratic Senate incumbents?

Michael Barone is… dubious.

It’s apparent that even the most vigorous black turnout effort in the eight states [of thirteen with contested Senate races, including Georgia and Kentucky] with low black percentages is not going to make much difference. Democrats there must hope that their candidates can maintain levels of support from whites at or above the levels achieved by Obama in 2008 and 2012. In addition, Democrats inColorado must hope they can maintain something like the 75 to 23 percent margin Obama won among Hispanics there in 2012 according to the exit poll. (Note: I have been skeptical, just based on instinct and observation of county vote totals, about the Colorado exit poll, which I suspect understates Obama support among whites and overstates it among Hispanics.)

In the five states with above-national-average black percentages, there’s obviously good reason for Democrats to try to bolster black turnout. But to win a Democratic candidate must also do significantly better than Obama did among whites in ArkansasGeorgia and Louisiana and somewhat better than in North Carolina.

(more…)

Sep
01
2014
3

I maintain a certain skepticism that Dick Durbin is in all that much trouble right now.

I am… hesitant to put too much weight on this Illinois Senate poll showing Dick Durbin ahead by only seven points. Don’t get me wrong: I despise Dick Durbin for being a re-segregationist, corrupt, constitutionally ignorant hypocrite who has no feel for his constituents and no interest in their welfare.  And I don’t think that Durbin can count on the Gov. Pat Quinn race giving him a boost in the election this go-round, largely because Pat Quinn is having difficulty breaking 40 in the polls himself.  It’s just that it’s still really, really easy to believe that this poll is just an outlier.  That’s usually the safe way to bet.

Mind you: I’d be ecstatic to find out that I was wrong, so… Jim Oberweis for Senate.  Because Dick Durbin is an awful Senator and not that great a human being*.  It’s long since time he found something else to do with his time.

Moe Lane

*The DC school choice thing really sticks in my craw.  There’s following a policy, and then there’s just meanness. Durbin made his choice.

Aug
31
2014
8

Hong Kong learns that you can’t trust Commies.

Hot Air has the summary:

Before 1997, the city of Hong Kong had been a British colony for 156 years. The reintroduction of that bustling capitalist city into communist China was always thought to be a risky proposition. It was China’s Deng Xiaoping who crafted a policy known as “One Country, Two Systems” in the 1980s, which was aimed at assuaging concerns in Hong Kong that their way of life would persist even after the Union Jack was lowered and the flag of the People’s Republic was raised in its place.

Well, the reintegration process has finally begun and Beijing has determined that the semi-autonomous province will no longer have its own politics as well as its own economic system. The Chinese government rejected calls from democracy activists aimed at allowing Hong Kong residents to directly elect their own leadership. Beijing would be vetting any prospective candidate to first determine their suitability for office.

(more…)

Written by in: Politics | Tags:
Aug
31
2014
3

Barack Obama, Mary Burke (D-CAND, Wisconsin-GOV) indignantly object to news report that latter is hiding from former.

Watch national and Wisconsin Democrats backpedal, backpedal, backpedal

In addition to a Milwaukee visit on Monday, President Barack Obama will return to Wisconsin before Nov. 4 to campaign for Democratic candidate for governor Mary Burke, a party spokesman said Thursday.

The announcement made to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel came swiftly after Republicans criticized Burke for saying she couldn’t appear with Obama during his Labor Day visit to Milwaukee because it was an official stop, not a campaign event.

Burke’s campaign had strenuously objected to the GOP claims she was ducking the president because of his lackluster approval rating…

…because while it’s certainly true that the President has a lackluster approval rating, and that Mary Burke kind of hates the idea of being in the same photo frame as Barack Obama these days, well, Obama still does have supporters.  And if Mary Burke insults their hero too much but being too honest about him, then Mary Burke is going to have even more electoral problems than she has right now.  The dance is, as they say, delicate. (more…)

Aug
31
2014
6

At-Risk Senate Seats, 08/31/2014 edition (Includes DOOM calls).

Here is my latest At-Risk races… and there are DOOM calls. Hey, it’s Labor Day Weekend. Time to start in on that.

Alaska Mark Begich High Risk
Arkansas Mark Pryor High Risk
Colorado Mark Udall Serious Risk
Iowa Retiring High Risk
Louisiana Mary Landrieu High Risk
Michigan Retiring Some Risk
Minnesota Al Franken Low Risk
Montana Retiring DOOM
New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen Some Risk
New Mexico Tom Udall Off list
North Carolina Kay Hagan High Risk
Oregon Jeff Merkley Low Risk
South Dakota Retiring DOOM
Virginia Mark Warner Low Risk
West Virginia Retiring DOOM

(more…)

Aug
31
2014
8

[A nasty post.]

[Suffice it to say that I was distinctly unkind and cruel to the author of the piece that Mother Jones tweeted out...]

(more…)

Written by in: Politics | Tags:
Aug
30
2014
2

UKIP hoping to get first seat with resignation/defection of MP Douglas Carswell..

Come, I will conceal nothing from you: I don’t follow British politics all that much.  But this sounds pretty significant:

Tory Douglas Carswell has defected to UKIP and quit as MP for Clacton, saying he will contest the subsequent by-election for Nigel Farage’s party.

If he wins the support of voters he will be the first elected UK Independence Party MP in the Commons.

More here and here. Typically, when British MPs switch parties they apparently do it without having by-elections, which apparently drives British voters nuts. As it should. Douglas Carswell is either very confident that he can win, or he’s acting on principle. Or, I suppose, both.

Aug
30
2014
28

A lot of people worrying about Central Europe right now.

I’ve had my, ah, difference of opinions with Anne Applebaum, but she sounds damned worried here:

Over and over again — throughout the entirety of my adult life, or so it feels — I have been shown Polish photographs from the beautiful summer of 1939: The children playing in the sunshine, the fashionable women on Krakow streets. I have even seen a picture of a family wedding that took place in June 1939, in the garden of a Polish country house I now own. All of these pictures convey a sense of doom, for we know what happened next.September 1939 brought invasion from both east and west, occupation, chaos, destruction, genocide. Most of the people who attended that June wedding were soon dead or in exile. None of them ever returned to the house.

In retrospect, all of them now look naive. Instead of celebrating weddings, they should have dropped everything, mobilized, prepared for total war while it was still possible. And now I have to ask: Should Ukrainians, in the summer of 2014, do the same? Should central Europeans join them?

(more…)

Aug
30
2014
0

Boston Globe finds Charlie Baker ahead of Martha Coakley in MA-GOV. …Huh.

Keep a real close eye on the Baker-Coakley Massachusett’s governor’s race, assuming that Martha Coakley and Charlie Baker win their respective nominations in a couple of weeks*. If the general election is going to cook off, the first warning signs would start appearing right about now:

coakley-baker

(more…)

Aug
30
2014
11

One hopes that the viciously-beaten George Galloway is now asking himself, “Why do they hate me?”

Of course, one cannot condone violence.

:pause:

But

Outspoken MP George Galloway has left hospital with severe bruising after he was punched repeatedly in the face and called ‘Hitler’ in a west London street attack, says spokesman.

The Respect MP for Bradford West was posing for pictures in Notting Hill when he was ‘leapt on’ and assaulted last night by a man yelling comments about the Holocaust.

He has been receiving death threats and hate mail after calling for Bradford to be ‘declared an Israel-free zone’ three weeks ago, according to his spokesman.

…I keep getting told that these incidents do not happen in a vacuum.

(more…)

Aug
29
2014
1

Two depressing things about Obama’s sudden return to DC.

Here’s the background:

And here are the two depressing things:

  • That President Obama thinks that going back to DC while the world is melting down instead of staying where he was after a busy day of fundraising* is an improvement in Obama’s behavior.
  • And that it actually is**.

Barack Obama: a man who does not so much believe in being graded on a curve as he more or less demands it.

Moe Lane

*Because God forbid that Barack Obama temporarily not fund-raise while there are bad things happening.

**Note: I am not saying that Obama’s behavior is good.  Just that it’s slightly better than what he was doing before.

Written by in: Politics | Tags:
Aug
29
2014
0

The New York Times’ meaningless refusal to endorse Andrew Cuomo.

I mean, it shouldn’t be meaningless:

New York had had enough corruption, [Andrew Cuomo] said, and he was going to put a stop to it. “Job 1 is going to be to clean up Albany,” he said, “and make the government work for the people.”

Mr. Cuomo became governor on that platform and [the NYT made a silly claim here], but he failed to perform Job 1. The state government remains as subservient to big money as ever, and Mr. Cuomo resisted and even shut down opportunities to fix it. Because he broke his most important promise, we have decided not to make an endorsement for the Democratic primary on Sept. 9.

…but it is, for the basic and simple reason that Andrew Cuomo will win the Democratic nomination for Governor of New York; and once that happens the endorsement of him by the NYT in the general election will be as inevitable as the sunrise. Put another way, Glenn Thrush is precisely right, here: (more…)

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