Aug
20
2014
2

On Michael Woolf’s (D CAND, New York-21) documentary, and secondary House race.

Well, that’s the NRCC’s claim:

A few weeks ago Green Party candidate Matt Funiciello went on the radio and claimed that Manhattan multimillionaire filmmaker Aaron Woolf was running for Congress solely to write a documentary about the experience. He repeated that accusation to DenPubs a week later.

Turns out Funiciello’s smoke leads to some fire – specifically in Woolf’s FEC report. A quick look at Woolf’s disbursements shows that he added two documentary filmmakers to his staff in April.

…and now I’m starting to wonder, too. Basically, the two people in question appear to be independent of the people doing Aaron Woolf’s campaign ads; if they’re not there to do election-related filming, then why are they there? Is it, in fact, to do a documentary of the campaign?

The reason that this matters is because NY-21 is going to be a tough seat for Democrats to defend: its incumbent Bill Owens is retiring and it’s traditionally Republican (Bill Owens got it largely because of poor decision making on the part of the local Republican party).  Elise Stefanik is the GOP and Conservative nominee (failure to acquire both was the primary, pardon the pun, problem for the GOP in 2010*), and she is in a good position to win this race, given that it’s a midterm.  You would think that the Democrats would have picked a serious-minded person to oppose her – but if Michael Woolf does[n't] care if he wins, because he’ll get an unique documentary out of the experience even if he loses… well.  That’s kind of a good way to ensure that he loses.

Moe Lane

*And the 2009 special election that put Bill Owens in office in the first place.

 

 

Aug
20
2014
5

Sen. Bernie Sanders (D, Vermont) meets with some of his Jew-hating constituents.

You know, we hear a lot of guff from the American Left about how insular rural areas of Red States can be.  But I gotta tell you: speaking as a transplanted Northeasterner, listen to some of those progressives in Vermont and it’s like you’re in a time warp back to 1830 and the Know-Nothing Party.

This is from a recent town hall in Cabot, VT: basically, Sen. Bernie Sanders (Commie*, Vermont) had to stand at a podium and listen to a heck of a lot of angry Vermonter anti-Semites scream about Israel, to the point where he started screaming back about halfway through. Amazingly, from the aforementioned anti-Semites’ right. Heck of a thing when that guy’s the least vile person talking. (more…)

Aug
20
2014
9

Alaska: Dan Sullivan wins! …And Dan Sullivan wins!

It’s like the political equivalent of the majestic Alaska salmon reproductive process.

AoSHQ Decision Desk has the results in the Alaska Senate race, where former Alaska Attorney General Dan Sullivan won in a fairly-evenly match field of four.  Meanwhile, I am told via Twitter that Anchorage mayor Dan Sullivan has also won the primary for Alaska’s Lt. Governorship*.  No word yet whether Dan Sullivan will campaign with Dan Sullivan in the election; it is of course safe to assume that Dan Sullivan endorses Dan Sullivan, and vice versa, although equally of course it is a matter of some friendly debate between Dan Sullivan and Dan Sullivan about whether Dan Sullivan should be given primacy of place, or whether it should be Dan Sullivan.  I suppose that it all depends on whether you think that a federal legislative position trumps a state executive one; if you think the former, obviously then it should be Dan Sullivan.  Otherwise, you’d support Dan Sullivan’s claim.

Look, you’re just going to have to get used to it.  Because Mark Begich is in serious electoral trouble: since Joe Miller won’t do a third-party run, once Miller concedes the election Dan Sullivan will be on track to beat Begich in November.  With or without Dan Sullivan’s help, although Dan Sullivan should be able to count on Dan Sullivan’s support… (more…)

Aug
19
2014
1

This is the perfect metaphor for arguing politics online.

PERFECT.

Moe Lane

PS: I don’t argue.  I rant.  And I give material to people so that they can go do their own ranting.

Aug
19
2014
1

What do, in fact, 1998 and 2002 mean in terms of Senate midterm elections?

Moving on, my random thought on this part of Sean Trende’s analysis of the 2014 Senate map:

Likewise, the tendency of the president’s party to fare poorly in midterm elections is so well-known as to require only an asterisk here: While the president’s party has lost House seats in all but two post-World War II midterm elections (1998 and 2002), it has gained or broken even in Senate seats in five (1962, 1970, 1982, 1998, and 2002). That’s somewhere between a third and a quarter of the postwar midterms, so our rule here is not really as “real” as it is for House elections.

To be honest, I don’t know whether 1998 or 2002 ‘count’ for anything. The 1998 results were skewed by Clinton’s impeachment; 2002′s, by the 9/11 attacks. Sure, I know, every election cycle is unique – but those two were particularly unique. Well. You know what I mean.

Moe Lane

Aug
19
2014
0

Stu Rothenberg: House continuing to settle to the Right.

Interesting shift here from Stu Rothenberg: basically, he’s shifting six of his House ratings, and all in the Republicans’ favor.  Of the three Democrats involved: Julia Brownley of CA-26 and Pete Gallego of TX-23 are now kind of in trouble, maybe, while Bill Enyart in IL-12 is now definitely in trouble.  I’m not trying to be cute, here, but this kind of shift before Labor Day is fully compatible with an even greater shift after Labor Day.  September is when most normal people start caring about politics and pollsters start concentrating on screening for likely voters.

I still don’t think that we are going to see a wave in the House, if only because we’re in a strong place already.  But we could see more seats than expected moving our way, yeah.

Via @HungarianFalcon.

Moe Lane

Aug
19
2014
10
Aug
19
2014
15

Medical device tax reducing medical device sales, apparently.

Weirdest thing: if you tax something, you get less of it.

To help pay for President Barack Obama’s health law, Congress enacted a 2.3 percent tax on the sale of medical devices used chiefly by doctors and hospitals, such as pacemakers and CT scan machines.

The tax took effect in January 2013. For the first six months of that year, the IRS estimated it would collect $1.2 billion from the tax.

The audit said the IRS collected only $913 million — 24 percent less than the estimate.

(more…)

Aug
19
2014
2

Quote of the Day, It Takes A Village To Raise A Child edition.

Please note: like Sonny Bunch, I am also fat (well, stout) and slow. Anyway, Sonny has this to say on the subject of what to do when a slow, fat child steals your stuff:

Look, I can’t believe this has to be said, but: If a slow, fat child steals your stuff you should not only chase that slow, fat child down and have him arrested but also humiliate him as harshly as you can and as publicly as you can in the hopes that other slow, fat children will be deterred from doing the same thing. And even if it deters exactly zero slow, fat children from embarking on a similar life of crime, you should do so anyway because stealing is wrong and thieves should be punished.

If you want context for this statement, look here:  essentially, a slow, fat child stole a cell phone from a woman, and the woman proceeded to chase said slow, fat child down the street for five blocks until she could capture him for the police.  Gawker – of course – thinks that the woman is the Worst Person Ever, and actually counsels the world to let packs of slow, fat children ‘nonviolently’ steal your phones*. Aside from being absolutely insane, that argument doesn’t even fit the facts on the ground.  From that NY Post article: (more…)

Written by in: Politics | Tags: , , ,
Aug
19
2014
6

Everybody Harry Reid’s ever viciously attacked is getting ready for 2016.

They’re coming to get Harry Reid.

Harry Reid’s reelection is more than two years off, but the Koch brothers’ political machine is already methodically laying the groundwork that will be used to try to take him out.

The efforts in recent months have been largely subterranean, but they are unmistakable. A handful of nonprofit groups in the vast political network helmed by allies of the conservative billionaires Charles and David Koch have established or expanded permanent ground operations in Reid’s backyard. Focused on wooing key demographics like Latinos and veterans, they’ve also paid for ads assailing the Senate Democratic leader.

Basically, it boils down to this: nobody loves the Senate Majority Leader, and if Reid runs for re-election in 2016 he’s undoubtedly going to be facing Brian Sandoval, the very popular and term-limited Republican Governor of Nevada. That combination of a horde of enemies and a top-shelf candidate has gotten the Reid machine rattled, although they’d rather chew broken class than admit it.  Since Harry Reid is currently polling remarkably badly against Sandoval, the efforts for 2016 have already taken on the aspect of a hastily-built firewall.  For one thing, Harry Reid has already hamstrung the Democratic candidate for governor and thrown him to the wolves: (more…)

Aug
18
2014
3

The stench of DOOM in Ed Fitzgerald’s (D CAND, Ohio-GOV) campaign.

(via @baseballcrank) It is, of course, too early for a DOOM call itself.  But this is one of the warning signs:

Top employees are preparing to leave Democratic gubernatorial nominee Ed FitzGerald’s campaign, multiple sources have told The Dispatch, choosing to part ways with a candidate who has been bludgeoned by bad headlines all month relating to personal choices he has made.

Campaign manager Nicholas Buis, communication director Daniel McElhatton and press secretary Lauren Hitt are the three FitzGerald staff members preparing to transition away from the campaign, according to sources who asked not to be identified discussing sensitive campaign issues that FitzGerald himself has not announced. Sources said the situation was “still fluid,” but it was likely that at least two – if not all of them – would leave the campaign by week’s end or only work for FitzGerald in greatly reduced roles.

(more…)

Aug
18
2014
4

US ratchets up bombing campaign in Iraq; Kurds retaking parts of Mosul Dam.

I think that the bolded part (and bolding mine) is probably the most significant takeaway from this story:

Using a “mix of fighter, bomber, attack and remotely piloted aircraft,” the U.S. conducted 14 strikes against ISIS targets near the Mosul dam in northern Iraq.

The Sunday strikes were the first reported use of land-based bombers in the campaign. Previously, most of the strikes had been conducted by a mix of fighter jets and drones.

The strikes represented an uptick in the air campaign, which was initially authorized to help alleviate the humanitarian suffering by Yazidis stuck on Mt. Sinjar and protect U.S. personnel and property in Erbil.

…because that implies a decision to make strategic decisions involving combating ISIS.  Bombing jihadis at the Mosul Dam is an excellent idea; it’s also, as Time magazine notes, an expansion of the administration’s self-imposed mission for Iraq. (more…)

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