Moe Lane

…because it’s pretty much the only way that he can even to get away with his numerous critiques of the GOP in this article of his bemoaning Obama’s chances in November.  Reality was: from 2009 to 2011 the Democratic party was in a position to pass… oh, about 90% of what they wanted.  For a non-trivial amount of that time they were in a position to pass 100% of what they wanted.  They decided to spend that capital passing a ‘stimulus’ that didn’t work, a health care rationing system (which also won’t work) that started out being unpopular and keeps getting more unpopular as time goes on; and trying to pass a massive energy tax program based on, ah, somewhat controversial scientific theories.  I fully cop to the GOP being obstructionist on that one, and thank God for that.  The last thing we need right now is gas prices being even higher. (more…)

Slightly contra Instapundit, this call for Mickey Mouse as a write-in on the California ballot is a blogger’s joke rather than an actual movement [UPDATE: I am informed in comments here that this is meant absolutely seriously; please be assured that I had no intention of mocking either the sentiment or the activity], but if it’s kidding then it’s kidding on the square.  And it’s illustrating something that is perhaps being under-reported: the way that Obama’s not been doing all that well in the primaries for an incumbent.

I mean, yes: we’ve had it noted that Obama only racked up 59.4% of the West Virginia primary vote; 80.9% of New Hampshire’s; and 79.2% of North Carolina’s.  But here are some other primary race vote totals, thus far (all via The Green Papers): Rhode Island, 83.4%.  Louisiana, 76.5%. Alabama, 80.8%. Massachusetts, 81.2%, Oklahoma, 57.1%.  To give you a baseline… if you remove places like American Samoa or Guam, if I read this right in 2004 George Bush never dipped below 89.5% (Idaho) of the primary vote in states he won and 79.6% (New Hampshire) in states that he didn’t.  Other states of note in 2004, to give you an idea: Alabama, 92.8%. Kentucky, 92.5%. Massachusetts, 90.6%. Rhode Island, 84.9%. (more…)

He’ll get away with it, of course.

(H/T: Hot Air Headlines) Apparently the President wants to spend his extremely hypothetical second term doing the following:

• Repealing DOMA;
• Passing another DREAM Act;
• ‘Reforming’ Wall Street; and
• ‘Investing’ in schools.

Now, I’m not going to fall into the trap of getting sidelined discussing the merits of any or all of those proposals*.  Instead, I’m going to ask: just how stupid does President Obama think Democrats are, anyway?  From 2009 to 2011 the Democratic Party had between 256 to 258 votes in the House, and 57 to 60 in the Senate.  If the President was such a blithering incompetent leader that he couldn’t pass wish-list legislation then, in what alternate universe could anyone legitimately expect him to pass a similar list in any hypothetical future administration? – Because the Democrats aren’t going to enjoy that kind of lopsided majorities in Congress again any time soon.  In fact, starting next January they’re probably not going to enjoy a majority in Congress at all. (more…)

Self-explanatory, really:

“It seems to me that Obama is intent on punishing anyone who is employed with a job over minimum wage,” [multi-generation white Ohioan Democrat Rudy] Guy said. “In the last three years, I’ve seen my spendable income drop, my cost for health-care insurance go up, and my benefits go down.

“Three years ago the question was, ‘Are you better off now than when Bush took office?’ Most of us weren’t. But am I better off today than when Obama took office?”

His answer is simple: “No.”

(more…)

Can you guess what it is?  Go ahead, guess.

Over at The New Republic Galston’s arguing that Barack Obama is trying to go for a ‘Colorado strategy’ rather than a ‘Ohio strategy’ for victory: essentially, that Obama was looking to win ‘a coalition of young people, minorities, unmarried women, and upscale professionals,’ rather than win ‘white working class voters.’  Now, I could spend a good deal of time trying to unpack the assumptions found in that; or I could show you a map (via 270toWin) of what the Colorado strategy looks like, in practice.  Because, as I said, there’s a word that describes the ‘Colorado strategy’ quite handily.

It’s called ‘losing.’

Moe Lane (more…)

It’s funny, really.  Somebody like Mark Halperin sees this:

Barack Obama’s decision to base his re-election campaign outside of Washington seems to be working pretty darn well. The campaign’s massive, high-rise headquarters in Chicago’s Loop achieves a fine balance between 2008’s hip-casual dorm room (there’s a Ping-Pong table and cheeky homemade signage) and 2012’s systematized Death Star (there are more employees than I have ever seen in a political campaign, with work stations subdivided as ever more employees are added). The place hums from early morning until late at night, designed for maximum efficiency and manifest focus.

and thinks “Success!” I see it and think “High burn rate.”  Also: “Hubris.”  Let’s talk about why.

(more…)

As I said, this is how it works.  Mitt Romney beats up the President on the economy…

…and we handle beating up the President on everything else.  Which is cool.  Happy to oblige, really.

Moe Lane

PS: Hey, you know what would really give those pretend-impartial fact-checking sites the shivers, the quivers, and the galloping staggers? Mitt Romney starting to use the phrase ‘jobless recovery’ with malice aforethought.  Just a suggestion.

I need to push back on this cover-their-rear statement by Politico on the ‘surprise’ flipping of the House of Representatives in 2010.

[House Speaker John] Boehner doesn’t play political prognosticator often. But when he does, those close to him say, there’s usually a calculated reason. In April 2010 — almost two years ago exactly — the then-House minority leader said in a radio interview that an astounding 100 seats were in play in that year’s midterm elections, a figure he said was broader than “anything we’ve seen around here during my 20 years” in the House.

Few from either party believed Boehner at the time, but his assessment proved accurate. Republicans put about 100 Democratic-held seats in play, ultimately winning 63 of them to seize the majority.

(Bolding mine) Actually, people who read RedState (or MoeLane) were prepared for that scenario. People who read Sean Trende at RCP were prepared for that scenario. People who read Hot Air and AoSHQ were at least prepared for the possibility.  In fact, people who were following the election using right-leaning sites and news sourcess were by and large prepared for what happened. But the people were relying on the Daily Beast or the Left-blogosphere or, well, Politico for their political content? …Yeah, those folks ended up being kind of surprised in November. Usually unpleasantly. (more…)

There’s been a bunch of predictive 2012 maps being thrown around today, so let’s look at one that is more an examination of trends at the moment.  The latest Cook Report survey has the current estimated Electoral Vote breakdown for 2012 as follows:

The visual:

In other words – and contrary to a lot of agitprop, on both sides – it’s game on, and we’re going to be fighting it out in the swing states again.  Cook has the toss-up states as being Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia: notice that all of these states are ones that Barack Obama won in 2008.  Also note that, of the seven states, only Colorado and Nevada has been really friendly territory for Democrats lately on a state level:

Virginia has a tied Senate, with the Republican Lt. Gov having the tie-breaking vote.  But that more or less doesn’t matter; what matters here is that when Obama campaigns in 2012 he will not be getting the same welcome in, say, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia that he did in 2008.  Of less, but still significant, interest is that Obama’s path to victory requires him to run the tables; we reapportioned EVs between 2008 and now, and largely at the Democrats expense.

And here’s the practical application to all of the above: which is to say, the Republican path to victory from the Cook baseline.

Essentially: Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and have a nice day.

This can be done.

Moe Lane

(Via @OrwellForce) The President really doesn’t want you to see the video below.  Or send it around to anybody who isn’t desperately trying to tell him or herself that it’ll get better for the Democrats any minute now.  No.  Really.

(more…)

Yes, I normally refer to this as ‘cutting and running,’ but Towns has been decent on free trade, net neutrality, and endorsed Giuliani for Mayor of NYC.  Also, Al Sharpton hates him.  That’s worth at least a little mercy.

Besides, the news that a sixteen term Congressman – and one of their heavy hitters, too; Towns was Oversight chair before the GOP took the House back in 2010 – isn’t running for office again should be sufficiently unnerving for the Democrats anyway.  As the National Journal helpfully notes, this puts the score for retirements to 25: 15 Democratic, 10 Republican.  And if you’re wondering why that number isn’t being widely mentioned, it’s probably because it’s not very helpful to the existing narrative that the Democrats have a hope of retaking the House this year. (more…)

That’s the tagline to this RNC video sampling all those excuses that Obama’s made over the last four years (while telling us that he wasn’t going to make any excuses):

And I gotta say: this is one of their better ones. Not designed for TV, mind you. It’s definitely designed for online viewers, so it can run for a minute-twenty-one and that’s OK. More like this, please. And more thirty-second ones that are suitable for TV. They’re important, too.

Via Jim Geraghty’s The Morning Jolt & Campaign Spot.