Moe Lane

Why could he not have used his powers for good?

When asked whether the president was supporting his campaign, the 81-year-old congressman said, “God damn, that’s a good question.”

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Yes, I normally refer to this as ‘cutting and running,’ but Towns has been decent on free trade, net neutrality, and endorsed Giuliani for Mayor of NYC.  Also, Al Sharpton hates him.  That’s worth at least a little mercy.

Besides, the news that a sixteen term Congressman – and one of their heavy hitters, too; Towns was Oversight chair before the GOP took the House back in 2010 – isn’t running for office again should be sufficiently unnerving for the Democrats anyway.  As the National Journal helpfully notes, this puts the score for retirements to 25: 15 Democratic, 10 Republican.  And if you’re wondering why that number isn’t being widely mentioned, it’s probably because it’s not very helpful to the existing narrative that the Democrats have a hope of retaking the House this year. (more…)

That’s… interesting: Gary Ackerman shouldn’t have had many problems switching over to the new NY-06.  The numbers favored him:

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I dunno.  They’re certainly scurrying around like… things that scurry… in Albany tonight.  This report suggests that the fix is in for the state legislature, and that Governor Cuomo is going to cave on his promise to support reform today, in exchange for promises of reform tomorrow; but it also suggests that the NY legislature has decided to let the courts design the Congressional maps, after all.

Which means… OK. Current breakdown is 21 Democrats, 8 Republicans.  After this election, we’re looking at… OK, Hinchey is retiring and Turner is running for Senate, and their districts were erased.  20 Democrats, 7 Republicans.  Assume that Hochul and Buerkle cancel each other out*.  Still 20/7.  Of the remaining Members of Congress, the two most vulnerable are Bishop and Owens, and I think that at least one of them is going to be tossed.  So it’s reasonable to think that a 19/8 D/R result is very possible… and that even an 18/9 D/R one is not outside the realm of possibility.  Which is to say, one where the NY Republican delegation somehow increases in size in the face of a two-seat CD loss, or at least stands pat. (more…)

I say “threatened” because if the NY state legislature doesn’t come to a deal by Wednesday, this is the map that is very likely going to be the one to get used:

…and there’s going to be several Members of Congress who will be very unhappy if that happens.  Including Steve Israel of the DCCC. (more…)

…so far, it looks surprisingly vicious, for a bunch of politicians on both sides.  If anybody has a list of the new districts’ PVIs handy, that would be a mitzvah…

OK, here’s the background: NY is losing two seats in Congress, thanks to the 2010 Census. Well, more accurately, thanks to the urban blue model of governance that has had folks fleeing those urban areas in droves – but never mind that now. As has been noted previously, the New York legislature is having a devil of a time coming up with a map that backstabs the right people and groups, which is why the courts have stepped in and may take over the process of drawing the actual maps.  Given that the Republican Senate and the Democratic Assembly and  whatever-gets-me-a-Presidential-nomination Governor Andrew Cuomo are currently engaged in a three-sided brawl on the subject, this may actually even happen.

What makes this interesting is a report from earlier in the month that one potential plan to handle the downstate/upstate bloodletting – OK, let me explain that.  The upstate districts in NY are where the GOP is strongest; the downstate districts are dominated by Democrats.  The Democrats aren’t really in a position to eliminate two Republican-held seats, so the general assumption has been that one upstate GOP legislator and one downstate Democratic one will get worked over by this deal.

How that would work is complicated by New York’s convoluted recent electoral history.  Right now there are eight Republicans and twenty-one Democrats in the NY delegation.  Of the Republicans, only one – Bob Turner, in Anthony Weiner’s old seat – is a really good pickup opportunity; the rest are either freshmen who took back established Republican seats, or Pete King (and thus probably invulnerable).  Diluting Hinchley – which is what the courts may want to do – probably won’t kill the re-election chances of anybody on the GOP side.  On the other hand, Democrats William Owens and Kathy Hochul are in trouble in the general election: the first one is in office because the Republicans/Conservatives decided to split their strength for two consecutive contests; and the second one is in office because Chris Lee tried to cheat on his wife using Craigslist.   Shorter version: Hinchley’s retirement makes keeping Turner’s downstate seat intact a good thing for the Democratic party, because the GOP probably won’t sit still for eliminating two Republican-held seats AND NY Democrats will need something to offset two possible (and plausible) losses this fall.

Believe me, trying to keep this stuff straight in my own head is difficult; I’m probably getting at least four critical details quite wrong.

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So, we’re having ourselves a situation in New York with redistricting.  The basics: New York, like many blue states that have been blue states for a while, has seen its population ratio to the rest of the country drop sufficiently that it’s losing two Congressional Districts this cycle.  So they’re all trying to figure out how to redraw the map for an optimal destroy-your-enemies approach:

• New York Democrats want to mess over New York Republicans.  The New York GOP is defending several federal Congressional seats (six of the seven GOP-held seats are effectively freshmen) and its Senate majority; and New York Democrats are eager to try to winnow those numbers down.  If they can figure out how to do it without eliminating a downstate district.  Or two, frankly.
• New York Republicans, on the other hand, are digging in their heels until they get at least their state Senate majority preserved (note that there is precious little loyalty, on either side, between the state and national parties).
• And then there’s Governor Andrew Cuomo.  He’s a Democrat… which means that he’s usually at war slightly more often with the Republican-controlled Senate than he is with the Democratic-controlled Assembly.  He’s also currently stuck with a veto threat that, if not followed, will hurt his chances for later higher office.  But if Cuomo does veto whatever devil’s bargain the New York legislature comes up with, then… Bad Things Happen.

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[UPDATE: Welcome, AoSHQ readers.]

Yeah, normally I categorize this sort of thing as ‘cutting and running,’ but the man just fought off colon cancer.  That stuff is nasty and even I have limits to my dearth of sympathy towards Democratic legislators.

Anyway… NY-22 is currently D+6, but who knows what will happen after the next redistricting? …Actually, according to Ed Koch this is a – his words, not mine – ‘godsend:’ (more…)

(H/T: JWF) Rep. Nadler is apparently quite upset that the cops cleared out the fetid, disease-ridden plague pit that had replaced what was once (and is now becoming again) a decent enough public-private urban park in lower Manhattan: he’s insisting – insisting! – that the Attorney General take time out from Holder’s current busy schedule*  to investigate the cops for ‘misconduct.’  It would seem that Nadler feels that the Occupiers’ propensity for incessant drum circles, rampant drug use, rape coverups, and of course defecating on police cars should all fall under the category of “First Amendment rights” – and that the cops should take seriously the complaints of a bunch of illegal squatters with Mommy/Daddy issues in Nadler’s district than they should the complaints of actual residents and taxpayers of said district.

I politely – politely! – would like to suggest to said residents and taxpayers that it may be time for a switch in, shall we say, point of view?  And while normally I’d just settle for suggesting that NY-08 Democrats toss out Nadler in their primary and replace him with someone more sensible, in this case I’d have to ask: how would you know that the new Democrat would be any smarter about keeping the Occupy movement at arm’s length, and in compliance with NYC’s various health and legal codes? – Because I’ll tell you this: we’re going to run a Republican in NY-08 next year, and he or she is not going to be a supporter of Occupy Wall Street.  We in the GOP have this thing about humans leaving excrement in the street, you see: we’re against it. (more…)

What a shame.

This New York magazine article on the Occupy movement is interesting, and that’s not a euphemism: author John Heilemann is not only aware that the supposedly leaderless movement has plenty of self-appointed (and I’d add, ‘imposed’) leaders to it, but he’s even willing to admit to it in writing.  Heilemann also has some pretty good insights on the Occupy movement, and the Democratic establishment, and how the two are, ah, ‘interacting.’ All in all, it’s about as fair-minded an article as you could hope to get from somebody who is sympathetic to a movement that thinks that the act of defecating on police cars is a valuable addition to public discourse.

And yet: the following bit of advice on what the Occupiers’ long-term goals should be is, well, poor. (more…)

As I understand it, actual residents of the district are sufficiently enraged, infuriated, disgusted and distressed by the plague-ridden  squatters that were recently forcefully reminded that they happen to live in a civilization with actual rules that said residents are now making it clear that if the city caves and lets the squatters come back then there will be trouble.  Lawyer trouble.  It’s hard to blame them… actually, it’s impossible to blame them; after all, the Occupiers have the typical Activist Left bad habit of simultaneously worshiping the concept of the People, and being utterly contemptuous of the actual , not-Activist Left people around them.  I generally start grinding my teeth after half an hour in the presence of your standard Occupier-type, so I can only imagine what months of forced proximity to these people must be like.

Which probably explains why NY-08′s Jerry Nadler is considerably happier with the Occupiers than his constituents are: he doesn’t have to deal with them every day.   Although he may like the Occupiers more than he does his own constituents… (more…)