Sean Trende goes over why I think Mary Landrieu is going to lose, but haven’t called DOOM yet:
It happens like clockwork. Every six years, observers start the cycle predicting the demise of Louisiana’s Sen. Mary Landrieu. Every six years, they are proven wrong, as she somehow pulls off an improbable victory.
But this year might really be different. For the first time, Landrieu trails badly as we approach the November primary. Her saving grace in 2008 – historically high black turnout – seems unlikely to materialize this cycle, while her saving grace in 2002 – a runoff coalition that favored her – seems impossible to re-create.
You see, I’m pretty sure that she’s going to lose. If I bet on politics* I’d put five bucks on Landrieu losing. But it’s not a gimme by any means at this point.
*I DO NOT BET ON POLITICS. For largely the same reason that Pete Rose shouldn’t have bet on baseball games, although admittedly I have much, much, much less in the way of influence over elections than Rose did on baseball games.